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The Sieges of Aleppo and Mosul with Later Coverage of the Battle at Raqqa

syria iraq qassem suleimani isis daesh muslim brotherhood nusrah jihadis aleppo mosul raqqa popular mobilization forces hezbollah quds force udhr

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#46 aus

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Posted 22 December 2016 - 07:17 PM

It is hard to win a war if we left the opposition fighters escape .But that's what is demanded today. Assad and Iran and Russia have won in Syria for the moment.



#47 mmoghand

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 12:45 PM

The Jihadis are largely a collection of mentally disordered males who are not suited to family life. In the Europe of 20 and 30 years ago, we saw similar personalities with football hooligans who would clash at games -- often arms with clubs or knives. Violence is like a drug for them.

 

In Syria it gets to this example:

 

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This father of two Abdurrahman Shadad, who called himself Abu Nimr al-Souri, was killed by an assassin from Fateh al-Sham in Syria. That's a Jihadi organization affiliated with al-Qaeda. But this SOB is too crazy even for them.

 

What he did was to teach these two girls to do suicide attacks. To blow themselves up.

 

He didn't do it himself, of course. No way. Jihadis rely on recruiters to get depression routed to murder-suicides. Going after 9- and 10-year olds is crazy even for al-Qaeda. Next year, who knows ?



#48 mmoghand

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Posted 09 January 2017 - 01:48 PM

The Battle of Mosul is going slowly. Suicide attacks and booby traps are expected to slow things down.

 

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Mosul is not bombed out like areas of East Aleppo. The toll for total extra deaths among civilians, however, could be higher. DAESH has been at it, killing people by the many dozens for a couple years now.

 

When DAESH came in the population was up around 1,500,000. Now estimates go as low as 200,000 to 300,000 left alive.

 

At this point the water service is out of operation, same for electricity. Food deliveries are a week away or more.

 

Overall progress is claimed to have retaken the area east of the Tigris (see page 1 map) with the western areas ahead. Pockets of suicide-crew resistance will need to be annihilated before eastern Mosul is safe for food markets.

 

Iraqi forces went into eastern Mosul with full military resources. But without water trucks, fire trucks and the like. That needs to get a top priority this week.



#49 aus

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Posted 09 January 2017 - 07:07 PM

mmoghand. It is easy to dismiss your enemies as mentally disordered males who are not suited t family life. There may be some like this but Is and other extremist groups get it support from intelligent

 but misguided individuals who are willing to die for a cause. Most suicide bombers are male. Few children are used but where they are used it is usually a last resort

They have little in common wit hooligans at football games. They  are  common to a long line of martyrs for various causes over the centuries. To underestimate your enemy is dangerous.

 

Mosul will take a long time o fall. Is can be beating military but to win the population to your cause will take a lot of work, Then rebuilding will take time.



#50 mmoghand

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Posted 4 weeks ago

"aus" overestimates the Jihadis. They've been examined in clinical environments as well as in prisons. DAESH is a death cult, pure and simple.

 

The Mosuli, on the other hand, have no interest in DAESH-Salafi ideology. The parades back early 2014 had all the mindful intelligence of Homecoming Football in America.

 

Mid-January we're seeing DAESH collapse in the East Bank area of the city.

 

The Good Guys are slaughtering the Bad Guys. Don't be surrpised that it looks like Aleppo. That's embarrassing to the idiots who waste trillions on DoD. so you're not seeing it on television. And Iraqis are doing the job themselves, where Americans failed repeatedly in the 2000s. So you won't see it.

 

All in all Mosul in 2016-17 is the killing field for as many as 8,000 Jihadis. That's maybe a third of DAESH losses after their Tikrit debacle.

 

The Mosuli ??? They see their fellow Iraqis as saviors. Persian and American artillery/drone/aircraft are all to the good. Anything so people can get back to regular food and water and fuel for heat.



#51 mmoghand

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Posted 4 weeks ago

And back in Aleppo we have this from BBC:

 

The battle for Aleppo was the most decisive of the war.

 

It is a long time since the war was merely a contest between President Bashar al-Assad and armed groups who wanted to destroy the regime.

 

So many foreign powers have intervened that this has become an international conflict. Syria has layers of war and not all of them are about the future of the Assad regime.

 

The intervention of Russia and Iran tipped the balance in Aleppo. Mr Assad and his allies can, for the first time, smell victory.

 

Foreigners, not Syrians, are setting the pace. And at the moment it looks as if foreign powers will dictate how the war ends.

 

 

Close, but it's Hezb Allah with 30,000 troops inside Syria that has made the decisive difference militarily. Russia is a close second.

 

And Syrians outnumber these foreigners everywhere except the hottest battlefields.

 

The war ends when the Salafi-financed mercs from Libya/Tnuisia, Chechnya and such are exhausted, not replaceable. Syrian Sunnis do not support this war. They haven't in years.



#52 aus

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Posted 4 weeks ago

While most Iragui do not support Is they are suspicious of Persians. Thy may not accept Persian control of Mosul.



#53 mmoghand

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Posted 4 weeks ago

Persians ???

 

What might happen based on today's force structures is that the East Bank stays with the Kurds and the West Bank goes with Iraqi Army.

 

Baghdad realizes that they have their hands full controlling Anbar Province plus dealing with infiltrators from Syria and as far away as Libya and Mercenary Central, a.k.a. Chechnya.

 

Saddam Hussein did it by killing anything that looked sideways. But oddly, Saddam's years produced lower head counts than what Iraq has seen domestically, even since 2009 when the international occupation dialed back its operations.

 

Success at governance goes to a combo of electricity, clean water, and suppressing sectarian bombings (that target Shi'ia civilians for the most part.)



#54 Elena

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Posted 2 weeks ago

"aus" overestimates the Jihadis. They've been examined in clinical environments as well as in prisons. DAESH is a death cult, pure and simple.

 

 

Only some of them. The vast majority joined this organization for money. There are volunteers from all over the world. Recruiting takes place in internet. Some of them managed to come back home, were sentenced and told about their experience.



#55 aus

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Posted 2 weeks ago

Elena I agree that even if Islamic State is defeated military there will be still b supporters In the west I think most recruits joined as an adventure and as a protest against their society. Young people have been doing this for years. I do not think it is just the money and when it runs out they will  still be rebels.



#56 mmoghand

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Posted 2 days ago

News from the front.

 

West Bank side of Mosul is getting pounded from Iraqi Army artillery and aerial bombings. DAESH blew up the Mosul Hotel, trying to get into the action. DAESH have to know by now that they're doomed.

 

Food, water, fuel -- fergeddaboudit.

 

There's a claim that 350,000 children remain in this West Bank area. That's from Save The Children, which has no one inside the city. If the ratio of published guess to actuals is like Aleppo, that's maybe 35,000 real children.

 

People have been heading out of Mosul steadily for a couple years.

 

DAESH is running out of willing mercenaries. Not paying them is part of it. Rape and pillage only go so far. As for IA and Peshmerga, the one is getting paid 100% and the other has prospects of taking over enormous tracts of land as refugees have left with little hope of return if they're gone for more than a year.

 

Nasty little war. Big for Iraq, to be sure. Big for MENA in recent decades. On the world scale this is a fight for at most a couple hundred thousands all together. Hell for the residents.



#57 aus

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Posted A day ago

The attack on Westenr Mosul has started. In several months Is will be defeated there. But how the victors behave will decide if there is another war.





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Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: syria, iraq, qassem suleimani, isis, daesh, muslim brotherhood, nusrah, jihadis, aleppo, mosul, raqqa, popular mobilization forces, hezbollah, quds force, udhr

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