Jump to content

Theme© by Fisana
 

Fool Moon
Photo
* * * * * 1 votes

The Sieges of Aleppo and Mosul with Later Coverage of the Battle at Raqqa

syria iraq qassem suleimani isis daesh muslim brotherhood nusrah jihadis aleppo mosul raqqa popular mobilization forces hezbollah quds force udhr

56 replies to this topic

#1 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 14 October 2016 - 02:07 PM

The Battles of Aleppo and Mosul are underway in the fall of 2016 as sieges with tens of thousands of regular military and militia soldiers surrounding areas controlled by a few thousand Jihadi fighters at each site. Civilian casualties are mounting. East Aleppo may have 200,000 civilians caught inside the siege lines. Mosul still has a substantial fraction of its original population in the city. Estimates there run between 400,000 and 750,000 people. Jihadi forces use lethal force to restrain civilians from fleeing what have become kill zones. As these battles continue to develop, we can expect the fighting to move in similar patterns with similar civilian and military casualties.

 

Politically these battles will settle the winners and losers for two wars.

 

In the western part of Syria the war is the Jihadi rebellion from 2011 led by Muslim Brotherhood and Nusrah forces. Government control has been reestablished for Dara'a-Damascus-Homs-Idlib. Retaking Aleppo means retaking the traditional stronghold for Muslim Brotherhood in Syria. As this Jihadi rebellion is denied territory, their adherents will be able to mount suicide attacks and not much more. They will be no threat to take over Syria.

 

For Iraq retaking Mosul will mean erasing the country's last large group of ISIS / DAESH mercenaries and suicide bombers. And where the Syrians can be expected to take some number of prisoners, battlefield executions are the most common end point in Iraq. DAESH started out that way with mass executions. They're getting their own preferred treatment in return.

 

Civilian conditions and awareness of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights will be considered. So far UDHR might as well be chiseled on a plaque on the Moon.

 

Western press and electronic media seem intent on missing it that these battles have set up with Syrian and Iraqi governments and their allies fighting almost exactly similar Jihadi occupation forces. The populations of Aleppo and Mosul would flee immediately if allowed. Neither population is up for dying as human shields for the Jihadi occupiers. Historical and current event posting will follow.



#2 aus

aus

    loyal member

  • longstanding member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,278 posts

Posted 14 October 2016 - 07:11 PM

While The Battle for Mosul may take their last substantial base from Dash it will not settle the winners of these two wars. I Mosul falls it will be due to the Syrian government supported by Russia and rebel groups supported by the USA. Then the winners will fight among themselves.



#3 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 16 October 2016 - 08:30 PM

Let's start with neighborhood maps for Aleppo and Mosul. The notations for who's where and who's in control are out of date. But if you need to locate a neighborhood in news reports, it's all here.

 

Aleppo.

 

i60rxTO.jpg

 

Once upon a time Aleppo was lovely. One of the oldest cities in the world.

 

Didn't see anything quite this pretty for Mosul.

 

Mosul.

 

Mosul-Area-Map.jpg

 

And here's the Ninevah Governate that includes Mosul up north-east, center-right. Next to yellow.

 

300px-Muslpr-en.JPG

 

Both are under classic siege lines. The siege prevents reinforcements from getting in. Same time, nobody gets out without submitting to attacker control. Iraq's government dropped tens of thousands of flyers all over Mosul today. Warned people to set up for staying home for an extended period. Hostilities in the form of bombardment and invasion are set to start within days.



#4 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 17 October 2016 - 09:07 AM

Aleppo with deployments, reflecting that ISIS / DAESH has been pushed back to the east from Aleppo. Also that the tribes in Idlib are now effectively neutral-pro-government. Brotherhood has its followers in Idlib as do Jubhat al-Nusrah and a few dozen DAESH foreign mercs. The tribes are what matter.

 

xbzO27T.jpg

 

 

The central green area is out of date both for PPU expansions and SAA expansion into Old City and a drive to cut off the area west of Marjeh.

 

Russian airstrikes all but eliminated Nusrah strongholds in Idlib. Their armories went up in explosions with casualties all around. For the tribes close to Aleppo this war had been acceptable when it was "Arab Spring" and protest against government inaction in the face of an extended drought through 2012. Today the DAESH and Nusrah forces are heavily manned with foreign mercenaries, so the tribes have no stake in the war. No one is firing mortars or missiles into Aleppo from the west. Effectively these tribes are neutral-pro-government.

 

Return to Ba'athist secular governance works well in Egypt. That is what the Assad regime promises the Syrian people going forward. Syria had tripled its citizens' per capita income in the two decades prior to these troubles -- a Golden Age for Arab progress that has been destroyed utterly by what Brotherhood/Nusrah/DAESh "The Terrorists" have brought to pass. .



#5 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 17 October 2016 - 09:59 AM

News at Reuters and The Guardian has an assault underway to retake Mosul.

 

Battle for Mosul: Isis city under attack from Iraqi and Kurdish forces – live news

Thing is, the fighting is still 10 to 20 kilometers out from the city itself. DAESH is sending out vehicle-borne bombs. Their usual suicide tactic. No effect.

 

The article offers examples of the main political positions. One interesting take is the Saudi objection to Shia militias which includes a claim that they executed 400 DAESH after the Battle of Fallujah. That's backed up with a mass grave. (There were several mass graves at Fallujah. This has been a no rules war since early 2014.)



#6 aus

aus

    loyal member

  • longstanding member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,278 posts

Posted 17 October 2016 - 07:51 PM

I think that it will be impossible to stop Shite forces taken part as they are the majority of Syria's army. However If Kurdish and Sunnie forces also took part this may lesion sectarian conflict.



#7 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 18 October 2016 - 05:41 PM

As allied troops sweep in toward Mosul from all directions, Aleppo residents are seeing a quiet stretch. Aerial bombardment stopped today, two days ahead of a planned relief project.

 

Aleppo also received a new wave of radio messages urging citizens to evacuate the area.

 

Mosul has been blanketed with pamphlets with a different message -- the opposite message. There, the Iraqi government tells people to prepare to stay in their homes for the duration of the battle. Iraq is trying to minimize the refugee count.

 

Winter is coming. Not only in "Game of Thrones." The prospect of hundreds of thousands of homeless people streaming out of Mosul has the NGOs and the Iraqi government pushed to the limit. The hazards of war will be compounded with famine, lethal temperatures and high winds if these people run for it.

 

Syria is in better shape. Aleppo's refugees can be supported locally. They're living in rubble anyway. Anything is an improvement.



#8 aus

aus

    loyal member

  • longstanding member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,278 posts

Posted 18 October 2016 - 06:52 PM

I should have said the Iraq army not the Syrian army. Even the Iraq army is mainly Shitite. I agree we are going t have a humanity crisis when Mosul is attacked. I doubt if IS would allow the civilians to excape so staying inside might be the safest option, Surely the foreign powers involved can stop famine and other consequences.



#9 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 18 October 2016 - 08:05 PM

Robert Parry, distinguished journalist and recipient of the George Polk and IF Stone awards, published an analysis today of what America's media have been doing for coverage of the battles at Aleppo and Mosul. His analysis documents what amounts to a cover-up for Al Qaeda in Syria.

Good Deaths in Mosul, Bad Deaths in Aleppo

 

American policy is depicted as a copy of what Israel wants. Israelis are the senior partners in the relationship. It's not just Israel as GCC take the same line.

 

Washington’s supposed regional “allies,” including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Israel, have sided with Al Qaeda in Syria because of their intense hatred of Shiite-ruled Iran, an ally of Syria’s secular government?

 

These Al Qaeda sympathies have been known for several years but never get reported in the mainstream U.S. press. In September 2013, Israel’s Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren, then a close adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told the Jerusalem Post that Israel favored Syria’s Sunni extremists over President Bashar al-Assad.

 

“The greatest danger to Israel is by the strategic arc that extends from Tehran, to Damascus to Beirut. And we saw the Assad regime as the keystone in that arc,” Oren told the Jerusalem Post in an interview. “We always wanted Bashar Assad to go, we always preferred the bad guys who weren’t backed by Iran to the bad guys who were backed by Iran.” He said this was the case even if the “bad guys” were affiliated with Al Qaeda.

 

And, in June 2014, speaking as a former ambassador at an Aspen Institute conference, Oren expanded on his position, saying Israel would even prefer a victory by the brutal Islamic State over continuation of the Iranian-backed Assad in Syria. “From Israel’s perspective, if there’s got to be an evil that’s got to prevail, let the Sunni evil prevail,” Oren said.

 

Al Qaeda has used Nusrah Front as its name in Syria and adopted a recent update to Syria Conquest Front, which no one adopted outside their own media. As to Israel, adopting Saudi preferences amounts to a deal that spares Israel heavier risks from the Sunnis. (My read is that Oren and his Likudniks have misread the map. A solid Shia Triangle would balance out the region -- Triangle vs. GCC sets up a rivalry where getting on the good side with Israel is important on a level with diplomacy with America and Russia. But Oren, et.al. are paranoids.)

 

israel_palestine_two-state.jpg

 

Nusrah has a leadership role in Aleppo based on external funding, as well as extensive contacts with Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi or AK Parti or AKP or JKP.) Their membership count is smaller by far than the indigenous Muslim Brotherhood crew. All in all what mattered to locals was that extreme Sharia Law was inflicted on them. It wasn't as crazy as what IS did to Raqqa. Crazy enough.

 

Rather than focusing on Al Qaeda’s harsh rule of east Aleppo [and that these are Jihadis], the Times told its readers in late September how to perceive the Russian-Syrian offensive to drive out Al Qaeda and its allies. A Sept. 25 article by Anne Barnard and Somini Sengupta, entitled “Syria and Russia Appear Ready to Scorch Aleppo,” began:

 

“Make life intolerable and death likely. Open an escape route, or offer a deal to those who leave or surrender. Let people trickle out. Kill whoever stays. Repeat until a deserted cityscape is yours. It is a strategy that both the Syrian government and its Russian allies have long embraced to subdue Syrian rebels, largely by crushing the civilian populations that support them.

 

“But in the past few days, as hopes for a revived cease-fire have disintegrated at the United Nations, the Syrians and Russians seem to be mobilizing to apply this kill-all-who-resist strategy to the most ambitious target yet: the rebel-held sections of the divided metropolis of Aleppo.”

 

Al Qaeda / Nusrah / Brotherhood are portrayed as "local heroes."

 

These examples show media as screwed up as CIA and the White House. Case in point is giving TOW missiles to what the American professionals called "Syrian Revolutionaries Front." Then this American ordinance was used to take the Syrian army base at Wadi al-Deif in 2014. And the base was promptly handed over to Nusrah. Yes, CIA had armed Al Qaeda. Same for Turkey.

 

Stupid is as stupid does.

 

Here's Hillary Clinton:

 

“To have a no-fly zone you have to take out all of the air defense, many of which are located in populated areas. So our missiles, even if they are standoff missiles so we’re not putting our pilots at risk — you’re going to kill a lot of Syrians. So all of a sudden this intervention that people talk about so glibly becomes an American and NATO involvement where you take a lot of civilians.”

 

But on the stump the phrase No-Fly Zone gets audience approval so she goes there repeatedly.

 

American policy claims peace is impossible wihtout defeating the Syrian Army and Allies. An absurdity. What, give Syria to Al Qaeda ??? Open that one with slaughter of Christians, Shiites, Alawites, secular Sunnis and other “heretics.” A slaughter like what happened early on in East Aleppo.

 

Meanwhile opposite sets of propaganda frames will be applied to coverage for Aleppo and Mosul. Despite that there's not a dime of difference ultimately between DAESH, Al Qaeda, and Muslim Brotherhood in Syria. They are fruit of the same branch of the Wahhabi / Salafi tree. They print off the same text books, same laws from the same Saudi web sites.



#10 aus

aus

    loyal member

  • longstanding member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,278 posts

Posted 19 October 2016 - 06:53 PM

I agree some of the Media is bias. But to say that a shite triangle would be less of a threat to Israel than Saudi Arabia is wrong. Whether the Arabs and Persians get strong there is a threat to Israel. However the whole Middle East is threaten by IS. They have to be eliminate first even for Israel sake. Then there should be an attempt at peace between the Shia and Sunnies.



#11 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 20 October 2016 - 11:45 AM

Turkey has continued its air war against Kurds. This time it's the area north of Aleppo where PPU stores its munitions.

 

Alazeera quotes a press release from Turkey.

 

The Turkish military said its fighter jets hit Syrian Kurdish targets in northern Syria, and killed up to 200 fighters, according to state media.

 

The jets hit 18 targets in [Marrat Umm Hawsh,] a region north of the city of Aleppo, the official news agency Anadolu said.

 

Quoting the army, the report claimed that between 160 and 200 fighters from the YPG, the People's Protection Units,  were killed in the raids on Wednesday night.

 

A Syrian-Kurdish forces leader, however, said that while Turkish jets and artillery were attacking, no more than 10 fighters had been killed so far.

 

Turkey is allied with Jubhat al-Nusrah and the various factions of Muslim Brotherhood going back to 2011 and beyond. Seeing them beaten at the Battle of Aleppo suggests that similar groups in Turkey could be challenged to the detriment of the ruling party.

 

Turkey claiming 200 kills with YPG/PPU reporting no more than 10 killed -- typical disparity. 

 

Amazing. One more problem going forward is what happens when the Russians start shooting down Turkish planes ?



#12 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 20 October 2016 - 06:14 PM

Mosul is being approached by Peshmerga and Iraqi Army & allies. From The Guardian:

 

KjUAvfZ.jpg

 

 

The desert area west of Mosul is cut off just beyond Tal Afar. The main DAESH area in and around Mosul has been targeted for airstrikes for more than a year now. American drones are active 24/7.

 

Shura is 30 km south of Mosul.Don't expect much action before the allies reach DAESH artillery. Peshmurga report seeing DAESH drones. Small, for reconnaisance.


Edited by mmoghand, 20 October 2016 - 06:30 PM.


#13 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 21 October 2016 - 08:01 AM

Russia complains that U.S. bombing in Syria supports Al Qaeda / Nusrah.

 

What ??? The logic of the current U.S. plan states that removing the Syrian government is necessary to end the ongoing civil war. Somehow that has twisted around to include backing Al Qaeda and attacking Syrian Army posts with lethal airstrikes.

 

Secretary of State Kerry used the phrases "moderate rebels" and "secular nationalists" when he described the forces that held Homs and Dara'a, as well as Aleppo today. Apparently that is a fantasy. If not an outright lie. Every anti-government force in western Syria is controlled by Al Qaeda / Nusrah which is the only organization on the anti-government side that still has access to resources (as always, out of Turkey.) No wonder Kerry is at odds with the Russians, who take Al Qaeda very seriously indeed -- here's Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov:

 

“With regard to the statements as to how the [US-led] coalition treats Al-Nusra Front, that Al-Nusra Front is not their target, these [statements] were not a revelation for us. For a long time now in the course of our regular contacts with US Secretary of State John Kerry I have been drawing his attention to the fact that the coalition has been working too guardedly against Islamic State [IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL]. But regarding Al-Nusra Front, we see that there are not only no results, there are no whatsoever attempts to suppress this terrorist organization,” Lavrov told the press, adding that there's a suspicion that there is an intention to preserve Al-Nusra Front as “the most combat-ready force” to overthrow the current regime in Damascus.

 

The immediate effect of all this is that the Russo-Syrian effort to allow humanitarian aid into Aleppo that started on the 17th of October has gone nowhere. Syrian Arab Red Crescent and its UNICEF partners keep trying to roll in truck convoys. But Al Qaeda / Nusrah fire mortars at the roads they need to use to get into Aleppo. Same time, Kerry blames the Syrian government for the blockage.

 

The Russians want Nusrah and allies to retreat out of Aleppo. That's not going anywhere. FM Lavrov said, “We are very much concerned that, despite the goodwill gestures that Moscow and Damascus have undertaken, we see Al-Nusra Front fighters refusing to leave the city.” Same for Brotherhood, tagged as Ahrar al-Sham, that provides most of the fighters.

 

For those of us who remember 9/11, who smelled the roiling mess at the WTC site in the months afterward particularly, seeing American diplomats make excuses for Al Qaeda makes no sense. Worst of it goes to Nusrah faking incidents where they blame the Syrian government for mass murders. Blowing up Doctors Without Borders clinics is well documented. Same for the burning of SARC / UNICEF trucks just last week which includes obviously faked evidence. The big SARIN mass murder at Damascus has always been questioned -- too big, too concentrated, not consistent with Syria's delivery systems. SOP for Nusrah is killing people and blaming the government.

 

Giving weapons to Al Qaeda has to be the worst military failure of the Obama administration. Falling for "Free Syrian Army" propaganda led to TOW missiles going to Nusrah. Other armaments went to DAESH that were recaptured when the government took Palmyra and Homs.

 

Made In U.S.A. Without interference by Turkey and the U.S. the war in western Syria could very well have ended by now. Nothing good for Syrians comes from what they are doing. Wasting the Syrian government is top priority for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel. And terrible on Syrians.



#14 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 22 October 2016 - 12:48 PM

We're getting a number of reports where DAESH groups at Mosul are said to carry out mass atrocities. Sources are generally reliable.

 

-- United Nations put out a bulletin on Samalia and Najafia saying that an estimated 550 families were rounded up and taken to Mosul. Those villages are outside the map provided above.

 

-- DAESH web sites claim to have killed 300 male Iraqis up by al-Arabi.

 

-- Iraqi Army and U.S. sources report a poison gas attack.

 

An American was killed. Chief Petty Officer Jason Finan was the first to die in Iraq in weeks. Otherwise the American effort out of CENTCOM hits a dozen or so DAESH assets a day, a dozen-and-a-half at max. Contrast that with Russia throwing five or six dozen hits a day against al-Qaeda / Nusrah and Brotherhood in Syria. (These Russian pilots deserve overtime....)

 

DAESH can kill 1,000 people a day as long as they hold Mosul. That's what they do. A lion beside the road.



#15 aus

aus

    loyal member

  • longstanding member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,278 posts

Posted 23 October 2016 - 07:03 PM

Dash or IS is capable of killing many people in Mosul and outside. But it will be defeated in Mosul by a combination of Iraqi    government forces and Kurds backed by American air support. Turkey has been told to keep out. Surely this is the greatest good.





Reply to this topic



  



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: syria, iraq, qassem suleimani, isis, daesh, muslim brotherhood, nusrah, jihadis, aleppo, mosul, raqqa, popular mobilization forces, hezbollah, quds force, udhr

Copyright © 2017 Fool Moon LLC