Jump to content

Theme© by Fisana
 

Fool Moon
Photo
* * * * * 2 votes

Bush43 Gave Iraq to Iran and General Suleimani now holds the keys

qassim suleimani iraq iran qods force

284 replies to this topic

#271 aus

aus

    loyal member

  • longstanding member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,278 posts

Posted 26 September 2016 - 07:58 PM

Mmoghand at least you admit that Assad can be brutal, Same with the Russians. This also applies to America some times. Whether  they are worst  is hard to prove. Killing people in Vietnam is hard to compare with the many brutal tribal wars In the Middle East. As for Russia they got away with blaming the German for killing the polish officers for years. This is an asspect of war, truth is the first casualty. It is always the other side that gets the blame.

 

The real problem for Syria is what happens after the Americans an Russian leave. Will Assad stay in power. Will Shities rule a Sunni majority country?



#272 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 30 September 2016 - 07:55 AM

 

The real problem for Syria is what happens after the Americans an Russian leave. Will Assad stay in power. Will Shities rule a Sunni majority country?

 

First off, the Russians are not leaving. Maybe ever. Their problems with Islamist terrorists would multiply exponentially if Syria fell to pro-Sharia radicals such as DAESH, Nusrah/al-Q, Brotherhood.

 

The divide in most of the Middle East is not a question of Sunni vs. Shia. In fact for most countries across MENA the people are barely aware of who's Sunni and who's Shia. In Morocco, Yemen and Iran for examples the behavioral differences for different tribes' members go to holidays and preferred names. In Yemen the Yemeni are 95% Sunni but until recently nobody knew who was what.

 

The real divide is modernized vs. reactionary. Modernized Sunni and Shia base civil and criminal law on the Ottoman Kanun systems. There is no effort here with Kanun systems to replicate 7th Century lifestyles. People believe that the Earth is round, in evolution and modern biology, that other humans are fundamentally respectable, that belief in magical creatures and ghosts/spirits is at best optional. Female genital mutilation went out of fashion in the decades after World War II. That's also when they started educating women.

 

At least four large groups of Sunni Arabs are fighting for the Syrian government. In Aleppo the Liwa al Quds, mostly Palestinians, has seen heavy fighting at the Handarat camp. There is no Syrian tribe anywhere in the country where the people want to be ruled out of Saudi Arabia by such as DAESH or Nusrah. Historical support for Brotherhood is down to the few hundred thousands.

 

The business about magical creatures and spirits should not be underestimated. DAESH recruits hundreds of suicide bombers annually by convincing depressed or schizophrenic individuals that Paradise is just a suicide away. Revenge for alleged murders serves as a secondary motive. And they sell Paradise by having spirits visit Earth and tell wonderful tales -- examples of what Westerners call Spiritualism.

 

Modernized Sunni and Shia live in the modern world. In Syria, same as Egypt, that goes with Ba'athism. Sunni and Shia accept each other but also Christians, Ba'hai, and Alawite which is largely Islamic but includes saints and other elements of Christian cosmology.

 

Ba'athism tends to let cities and towns run their own service organizations. Schools. Contrast with living under DAESH mad men.



#273 ~__aus__~_(Guest)_~

~__aus__~_(Guest)_~
  • Guests

Posted 30 September 2016 - 08:33 PM

The Russians will Syria ond day. As they have in every other country whether by force o r otherwise. I know there are examples of Sunies and Shites leaving together. Foreign interference makes tis difficult. While it is true that Syria is modernized and Dash I s reactionary, but even if Dash disappears  there will still be conflict in Syria.



#274 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 01 October 2016 - 12:31 PM

The focus on Aleppo in the West has produced an information vacuum for what is happening elsewhere in Syria. But where Aleppo is still at the preparation phase leading to a main battle, the Syrian Arab Army coalition used August and September to roll up control over areas that have been in "Rebel" hands for years.

 

Syrian Sunni tribes that previously went with "Rebel" Muslim Brotherhood alliances have switched to neutrality, which in effect makes them politically and economically pro-government. These changes look to make Idlib province a target for negotiations rather than combat. Small pockets of Nusrah fighters in western Idlib have been eliminated -- overkill, using aerial strikes and artillery.

 

Soleimani-Aleppo-2016.jpg

 

The big prize is Homs. The government finished retaking the city as well as the mountains to the east overlooking the Palmyra road. Aerial strikes annihilated "Rebel" command and control sites and a half-dozen arsenals. Rumor has two airstrikes in Homs causing poison gas releases from "Rebel" stockpiles.

 

With Homs in government hands, there is no reason for the Idlib Sunnis to continue their part of the war. Their politics have favored Ba'athist social programs and economic development. This was never their war. "Rebel" personnel and families accepting peaceful bus rides to Idlib from Homs.

 

Homs-rebels-evacuate-to-Idlib-768x474.jp

 

This map from Wiki commons misses Kurdish expansion down the west side of Lake Assad and looks to be a couple weeks out of date for SAA expansions in the south.

 

SYSgS4M.png

 

The green area north of Homs is in government hands militarily. Tribes are moving neutral-pro-government as DAESH and Nusrah fall apart and the established Muslim Brotherhood political system has shown its colors by holding out in Aleppo, destroying the city instead of issuing a surrender. Bad enough for Syrians that "Free Syrian Army" is Brotherhood. That makes an alliance with the Americans -- fighting the Assad regime to the bitter end -- more important than preserving the largest city in the country.

 

Syrians may well blame that Brotherhood FSA-American deal for what happens now to Aleppo. The city should have been surrendered six months ago. When the Castello Road was taken, at the very latest, the military situation went over to hopeless -- from there every death inside East Aleppo has been useless.

 

Hader (Quneitra) and Dara'a in the south are again solid government assets. It hasn't hurt Assad in the least that Israel helps Nusrah and IS units by providing medical care and food supplies. Also that Israeli helicopters (Made in U.S.A.)  have attacked SAA offices and vehicles.

 

Local political figures and the Lebanese have not missed the irony that DAESH and Nusrah claim to be Islamist purists and Jihadists, all the while taking aid from the Israelis.

 

Jordan has finally succeeded in cutting off the border across from Dara'a. They are accepting refugees by the thousands a day. Jordanians are the Good Guys.

 

abc_jordan_camp_jc_160914_16x9_992.jpg

 

DAESH moved thousands of mercenaries into the area at the Golan-Syria-Jordan border. They brought mortars and ammunition. The idea was to get started from there and roll up Damascus. Stupid idea, even for IS.

 

This southwest corner and the general area will collapse back to government control most likely over the winter. There is no logistical support now apart from the government sources. DAESH's foreign mercs can be expected to go out bloody. They are far from home and many do not speak Arabic. DAESH and "Rebel" units in the southwest are cut off entirely from resupply -- unless Israel takes them on openly as clients. No one in Lebanon or Syria expects to see that happen -- imagine trucks with Star of David insignia coming off the Golan to help the fanatics? 

 

All in all this war in west and central Syria is winding down. It's still rough. Homs has taken many more airstrikes than East Aleppo. The Sunni Arab tribes have moved back to their historical Ba'athist roots, what worked from the Ottoman systems. DAESH propaganda to wipe out Alawite,  Druze, Christian communities has rebounded against "Rebel" efforts everywhere.

 

Bashar al-Assad and his advisors present successfully as defenders against both the DAESH fanatics (Saudi and GCC backing) and Brotherhood FSA (the Americans.)

 

Then the fight with DAESH ramps up. Time works against DAESH as their main force are mercenaries. Every month they become weaker.

 

Russia looks to be the main winner here, along with the Ba'athists. Soviet era artillery has been decisive again and again, together with Putin doing his best to put an end to what was forming up as Perpetual War. Iran is quieter about the Perpetual War issue. What you get from Kerry and Obama these days is a strange call to remove Assad by force. That proposal is not at all practical, apart from assassination.

 

Do the Americans intend to support Muslim Brotherhood FSA to fight a continuing guerrilla war ???

 

Keep in mind that the secular government of Syria had tripled their per capita income in the 20 years prior to 2011. With the Oil States seeing declining per capita incomes. That's all it took to tempt Saudi Arabia and others to finance both the IS and Brotherhood armed rebellions.  Peace plus secular government -- that's what worked so well before. Syria was among the most successful Arab countries for decades apart from oil wealth where they're near the bottom.



#275 ~__aus__~_(Guest)_~

~__aus__~_(Guest)_~
  • Guests

Posted 02 October 2016 - 12:20 AM

Mmohand. I do not know if the Americans will continue to back the Muslim brtherhood. They will be wise to back no side. I agree that Russia might  come out better from this conflict. But it would be better if all foreign countries leave the Middle East after the fall of Daesh.



#276 stone

stone

    Computer Tips Moderator

  • Moderators
  • 4,913 posts

Posted 04 October 2016 - 12:12 PM

 

I can sympathize with folk who find it hard to blame anyone but the Syrian government. You have been awash in anti-Syrian propaganda going on five years now. They're barely human barbarians in the dominant media story. And now you should also eliminate the Russians. 
Based on 100% of the photographic evidence this was a surface attack. The attack damage was inflicted by a combo of small cannons firing incendiaries and what appear to be Molotov cocktails set off under trucks. There is no significant blast damage, eliminating an aerial attack with missiles

 

 

You parrot the pro-Russian / Syrian propaganda one finds on the interwebz. 

 

Eyewitness accounts from the "white-helmets" report drones circling overhead before the attack began. This is something that Russia has confirmed. These accounts go on to report that the attack began with helicopters dropping barrel bombs on the convoy, followed by jets conducting strafing and bombing runs. 

 

There are photos out now showing bomb craters at the depot. I suppose this is also part of the great conspiracy against al-Assad and his Russian handlers. 

 

https://twitter.com/...0543108/photo/1



#277 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 07 October 2016 - 10:53 AM

You parrot the pro-Russian / Syrian propaganda one finds on the interwebz. 

 

Eyewitness accounts from the "white-helmets" report drones circling overhead before the attack began. This is something that Russia has confirmed. These accounts go on to report that the attack began with helicopters dropping barrel bombs on the convoy, followed by jets conducting strafing and bombing runs. 

 

There are photos out now showing bomb craters at the depot. I suppose this is also part of the great conspiracy against al-Assad and his Russian handlers. 

 

https://twitter.com/...0543108/photo/1

 

O.K., Stone, let's have a serious look at the evidence. You seem impressed by what you see. Here the photo in question has been blurred for the posting at your URL.

 

Russian tail fin from a bomb appears as by magic in boxes of aid supplies, all of it inside a building. Here's the original with annotations:

 

HFhV1hu.jpg

 

The Question: how did that tail fin assembly get into the boxes ???

 

Did it fly through the hole in the roof or did someone put it there by hand ? .......D'oh.

 

Propaganda Murders

 

Getting civilians killed is old hat for Brotherhood and their HAMAS offshoot. We thought Gaza was bad. $500 rockets fired at Israel bring down modern artillery and missiles and bombs killing thousands. More than 1,000 children in the last round of IDF invasion. And of course HAMAS put their HQs and armories in the cellars of Gaza's hospitals.

 

Syria is the same thing militarily, played out with 20 times the casualties. The SOBs love martyrdom.

 

Back on September 19th, 7 PM local time, there was a whole lot of burn going on. But a minimum of blast. This is taken from a video taken during the burn.

 

LpOJ37x.jpg

 

 

In the vid these burns are steady, going on and on. And this one got hot enough to melt the sides, but no blast.

 

Ui1gW9B.jpg

 

 

The latest story out of "the Rebels" has all this inflicted by four Syrian helicopters dropping barrel bombs. Somebody wearing a white helmet made that claim. The propaganda story has gone from twenty missiles to four barrel bombs.

 

Whatever.

 

The whole of East Aleppo should evacuate ASAP. Same as Tikrit earlier. Same as Mosul today and going forward. The anti-Jihadists apply siege tactics because that is the only proven technique for defeating the enemy. Getting out can be dangerous for civilians but not from actions by the anti-Jihadists. Civilians are welcomed and routed to support areas.

 

Get the Hell out. Getting away from Brotherhood/FSA is the same problem as getting away from DAESH.

 

People escaping kill zones is not what the martyrdom-lovers want to see. Their game goes to propaganda, the stuff of the Saudi's propaganda machine like the so-called Syrian Human Rights Observatory. The stuff of faked photos, faked testimony.

 

Btw: a popular retweet among the Jihadi bunch carries a pic of a severed head mounted on green wrought iron. Murder victim, no doubt. Sicko stuff.



#278 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 08 October 2016 - 09:56 AM

Updating the Wiki maps gets us to the end of September.

 

M2FxBsl.jpg

 

Idlib is more neutral than anything else. Buses run through between Damascus, Homs, Idlib.

 

Kurdish advances include the area north of Aleppo and the west bank of Lake Assad. So far they have avoided battle with Turkish Special Forces teams.

 

The next big battles in Syria go to finishing out the siege at Aleppo and erasing the pocket of ISIS/DAESH fighters holed up at the far southwest corner -- the area bordering Syria, Jordan and the Golan Heights. Hezbollah has "taken dibs" on that kill. DAESH murdered a group of Lebanese policemen back a few years ago so this is seen as a justified revenge under Islamic law.

 

DAESH control of central Syria is tenuous. Very low population density. The south-central stretch is a desert. What looks to be half the country by area is more like 10% of the country by population. Raqqa at 500,000 population is the one large center.

 

Syrians are watching what happens at Mosul, expecting that battle to happen again at Raqqa. Clean-up work could go on for years, but with Aleppo and the SW corner pocket battles finishing up in winter 2017, Mosul and Raqqa come next and the war itself could be over by summer or fall of 2017. As soon as Aleppo falls, expect the government to invite the Syrian diaspora to return home.



#279 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 10 October 2016 - 05:16 PM

Any doubt that the U.N. SARC aid convoy attack was faked ??? That this was not air-to-surface missiles?

Finally, a pic of the trucks still on the road sitting there just prior to entering the unloading facility.

 

GsLeX9Q.jpg

 

You can see that these trucks are still in one piece. If there is blast damage, it's not at a level consistent with air-to-surface missiles. There's also no way it was a "barrel bomb" thermobaric device. The shock wave from a standard large-size barrel bomb would have torn off the sides of any trailer bodies within three or four hundred meters of detonation. Such a weapon would also have killed more like 500 people in and around the depot.

 

Where trucks are tilted over that is from tires burning through, blowing and going flat.

 

A number of U.N. and Syrian Arab Red Crescent personnel were murdered here. One report says it was 20. The criminals who killed them deserve full penalty under Syrian law.



#280 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 11 October 2016 - 07:21 PM

Major General Qassem Soleimani weighed in on Iran's military Budget War 2016. He supports Quds Force objectives and the principal issue for QF is the war against Islamic State.

 

The problem for Quds Force is that Iranians see the war as a problem far removed from their day to day lives. Images of destruction from Homs, Palmyra, and Aleppo should recall their parents' 1980 suffering. Thing is, the government of Iran suppressed the visuals from that era. Iranians don't know that what is happening today in Syria is almost exactly what happened three decades ago.

 

“The problem of the enemies is the centrality of Syria in the resistance front and relations with the Islamic Republic. We do not only defend Syria in this country, but we defend Islam and the Islamic Republic of Iran, as well, because DAESH and takfiri groups were not formed for Syria, these were formed for Iran.”

 

That's absurd. But why not? Suleimani can argue that he is looking ahead centuries. His vision fits a very long term where this foreign war produces existential threats against Iran. More was said:

 

“[If a] DAESH government would have formed, God knows what disasters would have occurred in the world of Islam. The Islamic Republic of Iran has stood against this disaster with pride.”

 

“The Syrian system has been able to tolerate five years of pressure and surrounding with Iran’s help, so the world confesses that these groups are terrorists … If these groups were not stopped in Syria, today all of this region would be fighting DAESH.”

 

Soleimani then claimed the Islamic State is “worse than the Khawarij,” pointing to “what they do with prisoners.”

 

“The takfiris [those who damn other Muslims] have been or are being defeated in all fronts today. I believe that the Syrian people are undefeatable with the support of their government. Europe today pays a heavy security price, and the reason is their support of these terrorist groups. Martyr Hamedani [a fallen Iranian general, dead a year ago] had a valuable effect on these victories.”

 

“We must trust the wisdom of our leader [Ali Khamenei], and know his value. Today if the Islamic Revolution has amazed the enemies it is because the wisdom of the leader … We are proud that we are Shia, whose peak is higher than all religions.”

 

 

.No one would expect him to say the Shia are lower.

 

What had required an expeditionary force with at most two battalions of Special Forces and artillerymen, suited to a fight well removed from Iran, has been elevated to a major war. This now a question of survival against the Wahhabi/Salafi extremists in Arabia, not just their clients called Islamic State. This applies equally to Nusrah and the various Muslim Brotherhoods. Iranians will understand that.

 

The read, here, should go to stronger Iranian participation in the Battle of Mosul this winter and then the Battle of Raqqa later on in 2017. We have not seen IRGC or Quds Force units deployed in full so far. I'd expect Suleimani to have a warehouse somewhere filled to the brim with Peshmerga uniforms -- suitably worn and frayed at the collars. He should save back a few for his Russian drone operators and artillerymen.

 

Homs.

 

They didn't kill everybody. The siege took hold and eventually forced collapse of the defenders. That included a few Nusrah cadres, many more tribal groups affiliated with Brotherhood. Still, no one wanted to flatten Homs and the tribes retained control.

 

So a deal was cut. The surrendered forces were allowed to return north to Idlib province and to take their families. Most stayed, giving up their weapons.

 

The tribes went over to neutrality.

 

So now we have pacification running from Damascus through Homs to Idlib. Trucks drive, buses haul passengers, not a shot fired.

 

Suicide bombers are still a problem. It's the Middle East. Instead of modern psychiatrists treating Depression, they have Salafi Imams selling martyrdom murders. Easy sell.



#281 stone

stone

    Computer Tips Moderator

  • Moderators
  • 4,913 posts

Posted 12 October 2016 - 05:22 PM

 

A number of U.N. and Syrian Arab Red Crescent personnel were murdered here.

 

Thought you said the UN wasn't involved in the convoy. 



#282 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 14 October 2016 - 08:06 AM

Thought you said the UN wasn't involved in the convoy. 

 

You didn't get that from me. This was a Syrian Arab Red Crescent convoy out of Damascus with UNICEF identification and monitors.

 

Go back a page to #14 and you'll see a photo of the convoy with big blue UNICEF banners on the sides of the trucks. A number of those banners went up in smoke later, then the surviving vehicles removed the banners -- fearing they were attracting lethal attention.



#283 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 16 October 2016 - 04:22 PM

Top Level Confirmation

 

This goes to the burn-out of the SARC / UNICEF monitored aid convoy covered here back a page. Washington blames Russia, claiming missile attacks, then here's what the Russian President says:.
 

It was one of the terrorist groups. And we know that, say, the Americans know it too, but prefer to take a different position, to falsely accuse Russia. This is not helping.” -- Vladimir Putin

 

The aid convoy was attacked on the night of September 20.

 

International Committee of the Red Cross reports 20 civilians killed and 18 vehicles destroyed.

 

The Pentagon alleged that the convoy was destroyed from the air and that Russian warplanes were present in the area, concluding that it was a Russian strike that was responsible. This came after initial reports appeared all over claiming a Syrian hit. Russia denied the accusation and said a US drone was monitoring the convoy, so Washington should know the truth about the attack.

 

Follow up reports on site went to Syrians and barrel bombs. More BS.

 

Putin also mentioned that the U.S. uses the phrase "Saudi self-defense" with respect to bombing Yemen. Then he muttered something more in Russian, not suitable for a family blog.



#284 mmoghand

mmoghand

    member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 702 posts

Posted 22 October 2016 - 12:14 PM

Here's an interesting comment on the prospects of Syrian Christians from back 2011. Now the Christians are off in refugee camps or into distant exile. Orthodox clergy have been murdered by the hundreds.

 

Why Syria’s Christians prefer Assad


One group not wholeheartedly embracing the anti-Assad protests is Syrian Christians, who make up at least 10 percent of the population. Under the Assads, Christians have been allowed religious freedom, and they have prospered to the point that they now make up much of the professional middle class.

 

“Our feeling is, if the regime falls, the Salafis and the Muslim Brotherhood will seize power—and that is bad news for us,” said Archbishop Mor Cyril Aphrem Karim of the Syriac Orthodox Church. “History has proven to us that Christians have always had more secure lives, better treatment by people who may be looked on as dictators, like Saddam Hussein.” After Saddam fell, Iraqi Christians were targeted by extremist groups, and fully half the Christian population fled, many to Syria. “Syria has been a beacon of freedom and security for Christians in a largely hostile Arab world,” said Patrick Sookhdeo of the international Christian group Barnabas Fund. “If they are now forced to leave the country, where will they go?”

 

-- from The Week magazine. May 2011

 

Where a majority condone or cannot limit the actions of such as al-Qaeda and Brotherhood, it does take a dictatorship to support UDHR standards.



#285 ~__aus__~_(Guest)_~

~__aus__~_(Guest)_~
  • Guests

Posted 24 October 2016 - 07:40 PM

It is good that dictators like Assad and Hussain give some protection to Christians. But the best protection is peace.





Reply to this topic



  



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: qassim suleimani, iraq, iran, qods force

Copyright © 2017 Fool Moon LLC