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Bush43 Gave Iraq to Iran and General Suleimani now holds the keys

qassim suleimani iraq iran qods force

Best Answer Dax , 17 August 2014 - 03:20 PM

US is battling ISIS, drones have struck their convoys and destroyed buildings, etc. and of course I believe there is US involvement we are not being told about. As always.

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#1 mmoghand

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 02:10 PM

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General Qassim Suleimani is a top Iranian general. He is also in Baghdad organizing Iraq's response to ISIS/ISIL, similar to his role in Damascus the last couple of years against the same military opponent. George Bush broke Iraq and now Iran is taking it off our hands, 15,000 Sunni bandits and the oil reserves all together.

 

Of course our MSM talking heads forget that Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham were out two months ago calling to arm the rebels in Syria. Same as MSM forget that these same Salafi bandits kidnap and murder Christians, including leaders of the Syrian Orthodox church. These ignorant Republicans have supported "Convert or Die" Salafi bandits since 2011.

 

The irony of these situations can hardly be overstated.

 

With McCain and Graham making fools of themselves, the spin doctors are acting out their own Obama Derangement Syndrome in full glory.

This corporate press disjunction from the situation on the ground in Iraq is rooted in their avoidance of one basic fact, the 800-pound gorilla in the room:

 

  • In the last 200 years foreign actions, including American actions, have never mattered less for the politics of Iraq, Syria, and the Middle East.

We did break Iraq. That part remains in force. Our Operation Iraqi Freedom and the Paul Bremer mal-governance broke Iraq. We threw in bombs and followed up with a one-man Tea Party. Infant mortality tripled -- contrary to CIA publications during the occupation -- and in all some 1,961,000 Iraqis died.

 

Coalition of the Willing went in based in part on claims generated by Ahmed Chalabi, who was being paid both by CIA and by Iranians. Eventually in 2011 this same Chalabi centered a political effort on behalf of Iran that prevented President Nuri al-Maliki from approving a Status of Forces Agreement, a.k.a. "SOFA." maintaining American troops in Iraq. (Chalabi: B.A. from M.I.T., Ph.D. from Chicago.)

 

al-Maliki had not won the election. The Iranian deal brokered by Chalabi was what put him in office.

 

Come 2014 the roof is on fire.

 

MSM corporate media repeat over and over that the invading bandits are "al Qaeda minded." They can't handle it that the ideology is Saudi Salafi. That these irregulars have been financed out of the Gulf States and that these favorites of the Republican Party have killed Shi'ia and Christians by the thousands.

 

Then what are called Think Tanks get in the act with what gets passed off as strategic historical analysis.

 

These folks are serious. As in "serious people." When Trump talked about the Obama birth certificate, he could have been doing comedy. Thing is, this is the Republicans' best minds vetted through the Foreign and Defense Policy Studies operation at American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

"A plan to save Iraq from ISIS and Iran" from Jack Keane and Danielle Pletka (an Australian) writing for American Enterprise Institute in The Wall Street Journal on June 17, 2014:

 

...only the United States can provide the necessary military assistance for Baghdad to beat back our shared enemy.

Setting aside for the moment the question of whether this administration has the will to intervene again in Iraq, here are the components of a reasonable military package that can make a difference:

 

• Intelligence architecture. Iraq's intel screens went blank after the U.S. military pulled out in 2011. Washington needs to restore Baghdad's ability to access national, regional and local intelligence sources, enabling the Iraqi military to gain vital situational awareness.

• Planners and advisers. The Iraqi military needs planners to assist with the defense of Baghdad and the eventual counter-offensive to regain lost territory, as well as advisers down to division level where units are still viable.

• Counterterrorism. Special operations forces should be employed clandestinely to attack high value ISIS targets and leaders in Iraq and Syria.

• Air power. Air power alone cannot win a war, but it can significantly diminish enemy forces and, when used in coordination with ground forces, can exponentially increase the odds of success.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

 

We will get back to this list and review it at the details. It's an example of the silliness that sounds so impressive at political meetings in Washington.

 

Because these people are "serious people" and they have gone to such lengths to appear knowledgeable and important, that WSJ article turns out to be the very worst part of the MSM mishmash. Worse than the Birthers, right wing Senators recently offering support for Cliven Bundy, or Sarah Palin's reign as a sex symbol:

We will return to AEI and WSJ trying to do "serious" strategic analysis after considering what General Suleimani is doing. Keep in mind that "arm the rebels" from February 2012 to a couple months ago and that WSJ piece are the best that our right wing policy wonks can do.

 

For the NeoCons and their herd this is brilliance.

 

And so, that brings us back around to General Suleimani, a man raised in eastern Iran in a rural tribal society who has a 5th Grade education. This is a man who had to walk out from his village as a pre-teen together with one friend to go find a school.

 

Suleimani, 57, holds rank as Major General in the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. His job is that he has led Qods Force, which is the unit of IRGC that handles operations outside Iran.

 

Today Qassim Suleimani is in Baghdad.

 

The PR story has him "arranging a defense for the capital." And of course this is the big story, the change to history that will move events forward. You have to know who Suleimani is and why he has such impact in the Shi'ia world.

 

He has been leading troops in combat since his 20s. He rose during the Iran-Iraq War to command a sector of the war front. (He also went out at night doing his own recon missions; a match to General Douglas MacArthur during WW I and sometimes in the Philippines in WW II.) His reach today extends to the Lebanese Hizb Allah and his own Iranians commandos fighting to maintain the Shi'ia government in Syria. He has snuffed drug operations and opposed the Sunni Taliban with operations inside Afghanistan.

 

Suleimani has had troops in training or in combat one place or another almost every day for the last 35 years. His first task in Baghdad was to use his network and Iranian resources to begin recruiting Shi'ia men to form a very large Iraqi Hizb Allah, an Army of God.

 

A secondary effort reached out to the Shi'ia veterans of the Iran-Iraq War. These are men in their 50s and 60s. Otherwise, they had been largely ignored. That war is recast as "Saddam's War" with emphasis on destruction to the Shi'ia south.

 

Takeover.

 

Last Friday, General Suleimani took his guard in to the presidential offices and took control over Nuri al-Maliki. He laid down specific actions for the Iraqi government. He set limits on coordination of forces.

 

This was not a private one-on-one meeting. The General assembled staffers and several leaders of the current government to assure compliance.

al-Maliki has been useful for political purposes. That phase of Iraq's development is over.

 

General Suleiman's strategic goals speak to local politics:

 

-- Subvert the centuries old Arab/Arabic vs. Persian/Farsi Persian conflict with this fresh Sunni vs. Shi'ia blood fight.

-- Build an army. By fall of 2014 he will have his 500,000+ in Hizb Allah with AKs and experienced leadership, another 200,000+ reliable Iraqi army, and 50,000 Qods Force shock troops. That gives a 750,000:15,000 or 60:1 advantage. Plus tanks.

-- Define combat objectives. After the mass murders from these Salafi bandits in Mosul and other cities, a war of annihilation has to be expected. No prisoners.

-- Assess force positions. The first problem for  a September attack from Suleimani's army will be to move quickly to seal off the Syrian border. And the Jordanian border.

 

The rest of it can be left to sessions of "Call of Duty" or a stiff Zombie game. What this massive, well equipped army finds, it will kill. And after that is done, the map comes out.

-- Distance from Baghdad to Damascus: 754 kilometers, 469 miles.

A long day's drive by armored column, if General Suleimani does not engage in grinding actions along the way to kill every last Salafi bandit.

He has Qods Force officers and commandos in Syria now, plus thousands of the Lebanese Hizb Allah. Throwing 250,000 men with full modern weaponry up there to end that fight will be the Keep It Simple Stupid opportunity.

 

As to the right wing Wall Street Journal and American Enterprise Institute "Plan" cited earlier:

 

-- America is not going to have a role in this fight.

 

-- Any American intelligence on the Sunni bandits would be appreciated, of course. (America turned down General Suleimani's offer to help crush the Sunni Taliban. He offered 20,000 Afghan troops he would train as commandos on Iranian soil.)

 

-- Suleimani's recruited Iraqi veterans will be better at leading the Iraqi Hizb Allah than any combination of Americans. Going out at 60:1 the army that Suleiman is building do not need help.

 

-- Special Forces and airplanes are distractions. SF guys carry nifty combat hatchets, but going into the field at 60:1 overall and likely 20:1 for experienced field forces, Suleimani's army will have more to worry about from friendly fire events and bobby traps than from their Sunni opposition.

 

Suleimani = 5 to the NeoCons/WSJ/AEI = 0.

 

Ultimately he ends the war connecting up with his Lebanese Hizb Allah, IRGC commandos, and the Shi'ia Assad forces in Damascus sometime mid-2015. Logistics could drag moving into Syria. The meet-up could come as late as mid-2016 with an extra 100,000 dead Syrians on the fire.

 

The new Sunni Caliphate is erased.

 

Have I mentioned that General Suleimani has a 5th Grade education. Every time out he gets 5 things right. One for each year ain't so bad. "How does so-and-so do at 5th Grade problems ???" -- not a bad question.

 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

 

The West insists on tagging these Sunni irregulars as "al Qaeda connected" or "al Qaeda minded."

 

There is no al Qaeda. There was once a War on Terror as sloganized by the Bush propagandists. So much for that.

 

Obama won that one decisively. There's a few CIA web sites claiming to be al Qaeda. There's twitter postings claiming to be ISIS/ISIL.

 

America has suffered all of 10 real terrorist killings in the last 5 years.

 

3 at Boston, 3 in Algeria, 4 at Benghazi, Libya. Obama has won that war. That's against the numbers under Reagan with 675 dead, Clinton with 444, and Bush43 with 3,206.

 

10 is a win. Yeah, Obama has destroyed al Qaeda.

 

There's phony stats out there claiming terrorism is on the rise worldwide. They've taken to counting local war casualties and genocide deaths as terrorism, which is a major change to the body count rules. Plainly the Muslim inflicted genocides in Africa are genocide, not al Q international terrorism.

 

And from Tehran, even outside religious circles, a deep "Thank you!" is due the Saudis for their blunder joining forces with Israel and their paid NeoCon agents after 9/11 to get America to destroy Saddam Hussein.

 

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia got what they wanted. They eliminated their greatest Sunni rival when Saddam was hanged. Death came to 1,961,000 other Muslims, but from the Saudi point of view these people were mostly Shi'ia. In sum, Operation Iraqi Freedom destroyed the economy and any will to fight an external enemy in Iraqi society.

 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

And of course General Suleimani is on the CIA and Israeli hit lists as a "terrorist." Mostly that is a favor to the Saudis and their NeoCon Experts At All Things.

EU agrees officially. Switzerland also condemns him. CIA has been doing the Saudi's murders for them for decades.

 

Suleimani is called a terrorist because he has people in the villages in Syria fighting these Sunni financed Salafi bandits. He arranges support for any and all Shi'ia communities in Syria. That is the mission for Iran. Blocking a Saudi takeover of Syria, blocking creation of a Caliphate is not what the Saudis want.

 

So CIA and the Department of State put General Suleimani on their official hit list. You could also say that he was Prematurely Anti-Caliphate and Anti-Mass Murder -- P.A.C.A.M.M. Similar to FBI's "P.A.F." tag for Lefties in the 1940s, for opposing Hitler in the 1930s.

 

For minds such as Supreme Leader Sayyid Ali Khamenei and His Eminence Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Suleimani may be seen to be Allah's gift to punish the unrighteous.

 

So of course the Saudis pay the right people to get their enemies on the list to put an American drone on them. Exploit the political marriages, the likes of Bandar Bush and Paul Wolfowitz. Go for it. Fire the missiles. Blast them off the planet. Saudis to Israel-connected Neocons/DoD/ to drones --- and money-money-money makes the world go around.

 

Makes cowards of us all. Unless you have that 5th Grade education. And believe that in Paradise as a martyr you will live in the belly of a small green bird that sings in a tree below the throne of Allah.



#2 mmoghand

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Posted 26 June 2014 - 02:23 PM

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Ali Alfoneh has a humorous bio out on General Suleimani.

 

You can see where his text does fancy steps to play the propaganda game.

 

He gets the basics right. On the whole you have to read "American Caesar" from William Manchester about MacArthur to find a match.

 

For those who enjoy sources, you can start here:

 

-- “CENTCOM in 2010: Views from General David H. Petraeus,” Institute for the Study of War.

-- “Tashkil-e Sepah-e Quds” [Establishment of the Quds Force], Payam-e Enghelab (Tehran), December 12, 1981, 3. Before this date, the Quds Force was known as the Unit of the Liberation Movements of the IRGC. See, for example, “Zarourat-e Tashkil-e Sepah-e Pasdaran-e Enghelab-e Eslami” [The Necessity of Establishing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps], Payam-e Enghelab (Tehran), February 16, 1981.

-- “Iran’s Efforts in Iraqi Electoral Politics,” Embassy of the United States (Baghdad), November 13, 2009.

-- Kimberly Kagan, Iran’s Proxy War against the United States and the Iraqi Government (Washington, DC: Institute for the Study of War and The Weekly Standard, May 2006-August 20, 2007), 3

-- “Iranian ‘Interference’ in Iraqi Political Affairs Reported,” Al-Nahdah (Baghdad), March 9, 2004, quoted in BBC Summary of World Broadcasts on March 12, 2004.

-- UN Security Council, Resolution 1747, March 24, 2007,

-- US Department of State, Office of the Spokesman, “Designation of Iranian Entities and Individuals for Proliferation Activities and Support for Terrorism,” news release, October 25, 2007,

-- US Department of State, Office of the Spokesman, “Designation of Iranian Entities and Individuals for Proliferation Activities and Support for Terrorism.”

 

The bio has lots of links.



#3 aus

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Posted 27 June 2014 - 01:36 AM

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It is interesting to have knowledge of local commanders in the Iraq and Iran conflict. But to study the conflict you must go much further back in History to The ottoman Empire. Sunnies are trying to restore the borders to what they were before the fall of this Empire. I think it would be wise for the West to keep out.



#4 mmoghand

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Posted 27 June 2014 - 01:38 PM

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...you must go much further back in History to The ottoman Empire. Sunnies (sic) are trying to restore the borders to what they were before the fall of this Empire. ...


Excepting consideration of the many hundreds of murders and tortures perpetrated by the Shah of Iran, you can start the clock at February 1 (12th of Bahman) of the year we call 1979. That is when Ayatollah Ruhollah Mostafavi Moosavi Khomeini returned from exile and the Iranian Revolution came over to governance.

Then Saddam Hussein inflicted the Iran-Iraq War on Iran from September 22, 1980 to 1988 with assistance 1981-1988 from Ronald Reagan and his allies. The war killed a million people and trained two corps of effective, thoroughly blooded military officers on the respective sides. Qassim Suleimani is one of the most capable of these veterans. And Saddam messed up his own officers after the war -- his own hold on power was all that mattered.

As to the Sunnis, there is no plan. "Restore borders" is way beyond their capacity to do geopolitical planning. The big Sunni leaders are rather like Saddam, committed to a grand materialistic Paradise On Earth with palaces and even exceeding Saddam with courtesans recruited from the ends of the earth. They used the Syrian drought to rouse a nasty Sunni rebellion against the Shi'ia Assads. They don't care about Assad or Shi'ia -- this fighting is a way to export their psychopaths, all they can from the Sunni Middle East and North Africa.

It's similar as a business process to the Palestinians and al Qaeda leveraging Major Depression to generate their suicide bombings.

Nobody there is planning anything for a long term, so the bandits go out of control and invade Iraq. The Sunnis do have some smart people. Just nobody like Qassim Suleimani. Nobody blooded, funeraled with friends such as Hassan Shateri. And the Americans have nobody like him either, nobody with 35 years fighting for his own home ground and his own peoples and his own languages and (though he does not see it that way) a world without end.

Israel does. And despite doctrine and propaganda these are the political realists of MENA. Suleimani & his generation know that Israel has boomers out in the Indian Ocean, that ultimately there must be a working resolution between them. "Victory or Death" would be weighted with an unacceptable number of deaths.

#5 aus

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Posted 28 June 2014 - 12:34 AM

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mmoghand, Your comments seem to suggest the Shiia in Persia (iran) are rational and the Sunnies are mad. Both sides are driven partly by their religion but more by their perceived history. Persia has always been an independent country even during the Roman Empire. It has adopted the minority Muslim sect. It has a right to independence  and it is correct the Shar with Western help  did great harm.

However he emerging of one General will not ensure victory for the shiía

 

In the end the sectarian battle will have to be fought out by the inhabitants of the region free of western interference.



#6 mmoghand

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Posted 28 June 2014 - 01:48 AM

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Your comments seem to suggest the Shiia in Persia (iran) are rational and the Sunnies are mad. ... The emerg(ence) of one General will not ensure victory for the shiía

 

In the end the sectarian battle will have to be fought out by the inhabitants of the region free of western interference.

 

Sunnis have taken a dangerous course in Syria. 80% of the population is Sunni, but with these bandits threatening both Syria and Iraq it look like the Shi'ia will be forced to annihilate the bandits and then take over the whole area. The Sunni area in north and western Iraq is included in that change over. Other pressures follow, as with Lebanon.

 

If Tehran fails to seize this opportunity there is a chance that more competent Sunni leadership will emerge. Another dictator such as Saddam or Sissi fits the pattern.

 

Crushing the Sunni bandits and taking the fight all the way to the Turkish border is their one safe course. A logistics nightmare, but otherwise straightforward.

 

What else?



#7 mmoghand

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Posted 28 June 2014 - 10:58 PM

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The Sunni bandits have documented parts of their slaughter in Tikrit. Two of the mass murder sites were given the full photographic treatment.

 

Human Right Watch organized photos released by the bandits and documented the locations from existing photos from prior to the killings.

 

There is a devastating slide show online HERE.

 

 

 

Iraq: ISIS Execution Site Located Analysis of photographs and satellite imagery strongly indicates that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) conducted mass executions in Tikrit after seizing control of the city on June 11, 2014. The analysis suggests that ISIS killed between 160 and 190 men in at least two locations between June 11 and 14. The number of victims may well be much higher, but the difficulty of locating bodies and accessing the area has prevented a full investigation.

 

-- HRW tag for the slide show.

 

Many dozens with hands tied behind their backs, made to lie down, then machine gunned by multiple executioners.

 

It's another so-called "Cultural Revolution." The original in China murdered 3,000,000 people. These guys are working hard to catch up. They are proud of their work, too.



#8 aus

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Posted 29 June 2014 - 12:32 AM

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These photos are of an extreme group of Suunies not all sunnies. How many thousands have been killed by Shites in Iran without photos?

 

By the way The Chinese Cultural Revolution was  returning people to the past. Is this what both sides want?



#9 mmoghand

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Posted 01 July 2014 - 05:17 PM

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Iraq got a shipment of ground-support aircraft yesterday -- Sukhoi-25 jets -- that Russia provided. That's cool for Baghdad, because it allows General Suleimani and his Air Force to send the Iranian SU-25s into action. This could be of particular use for interdiction efforts up by the Syrian border and to assist where ISIS/ISIL concentrates forces as for the refinery battle.

 

Be interesting to see if/when the Kurds provide landing strips and fuel. Kurds are Sunni and 100% anti-ISIS/ISIL.

 

Any deal that replaces the al-Maliki government has to leave the Kurds with Kirkuk. Unlikely that gets formalized. They already have it and have set up defenses. Kirkuk looks to be the safest city in the north.

 

The Iranians have not pursued violent anti-Sunni policies, at least recently. The Kurdish Iranians are Sunni as are the Lari. It's about 10% of the population and the situation has been stable for 20-odd years. They are tough on their own Shi'ia, not the Sunni.

 

Unlike many states in MENA the Persians do not follow a winner-takes-all approach to religion. They also have small minorities from other Asian countries and mostly leave them alone.



#10 mmoghand

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Posted 05 July 2014 - 06:24 PM

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Human Rights Watch verifies that ISIS/ISIL carried out a mass kidnapping of children in late May. 130 young boys remain at their mercy.

 

-- http://www.hrw.org/n...urdish-children

 

 

The Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) should immediately release the estimated 133 Kurdish boys it has held hostage in northern Syria for a month.

ISIS abducted 153 children, ages 13 and 14, from the mostly Kurdish town of Ain al-`Arab (Kobani in Kurdish) on May 29, 2014, as they returned from taking year-end exams in the city of Aleppo. Five boys escaped and ISIS released 15 others on June 28, apparently in return for the release of three ISIS members held by Kurdish forces.

 

-- HRW

 

 

Arab press ignore this disaster. al-Jazeera has not a word. Same for the state news outlets all across the Gulf States. Not even an item to decry turning the boys into child soldiers.

 

The victims are Kurds, not Arabs. It is also difficult for them to accept that this bunch of Sunnis from Syrian and other MENA countries are fundamentally as bad as the worst of the Africans.

 

What happens when General Suleimani's army goes on the move, come the fall equinox give or take a couple weeks ??? How many Sunni media giants will applaud ending the bandits' slaughter? And how many in the West?



#11 aus

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Posted 06 July 2014 - 01:53 AM

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mmoghand. I agree the Sunnies extremist have tries to turn boys into soldiers. But so have man African countries. Even the sheite armies used boys in their army. I am oppose to this .Some Australian young men are fighting for he Sunnies extremists. It is wrong for all sides and is condemned by our government,



#12 mmoghand

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Posted 14 July 2014 - 02:56 PM

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ISIS/ISIL has adopted the broad recruitment of children to serve as soldiers. The boys are armed and given some rudimentary training, enough to be lethal. This practice was a commonplace of the struggle in Syria over the last couple of years. It has spread into Iraq.

 

Iraq: Children of War piece in the Mail Onliine

 

Plainly this force is built to terrorize civilian populations. You don't put 8-year olds and early teens into units that expect to go into battle against a modern army.

 

A map of the war zone in the Mail Online piece shows Kirkuk surrounded. That may be a reflection of ISIS/ISIL infiltrations into Kurdish areas back a month ago. Anyone can drive a pickup truck across open land. However, other sources have a 10 kilometer perimeter is effect in July around Kirkuk plus modern weaponry in use to secure all the Kurdish areas. Riding around in pickup trucks doesn't get very far against armored cars with 50-cal and cannon plus field artillery, not to speak of what Iran is providing.

 

In June ISIS/ISIL attacked Samarra. They're good at wrecking buildings and murdering civilians or anyone who surrenders. Last week the Iraqi army finished driving out the last of the main ISIS/ISIL force. Reports match up to what happened around Kirkuk. A perimeter defense was implemented extendiing 10 kilometers north and around the city.

 

Estimates from a week ago went to 200 vehicles destroyed with more shot up by the day. General Suleimani's force can keep this up without limit. That puts ISIS/ISIL in trouble for manpower by mid-September. They're getting killed much faster than they can recruit useful troops. Iraq also has its 40-odd attack helicopters from Russia already available and the new deliveries of SU-25s and drones by the dozens.

 

Western media are talking up a three way split of Iraq. Somehow they claim that the end game leaves the Sunni NW and W areas to ISIS/ISIL. That is not going to happen.

 

As a note: you need the 10 kilometer perimeters for city defense -- Kirkuk, Samarra, whatever -- because that is the range for large mortars with rifled barrels. For some reason there's lots of 120mm mortar in play with these irregulars. Your own cannons will reach out another 2 or 3 kilometers from the formal perimeter with sufficient accuracy to take out vehicles and infantry efficiently. "If It Moves Kill It" particularly at night -- the default rule.



#13 aus

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Posted 15 July 2014 - 01:11 AM

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It May be still possible to divide much of Irag up into Kurdish,sunnie and shites areas. Of course the borders may be a problem and cites like Bagdah where sizable numbrs of ll groups live together would be hard . There might have to be some no man lands on the borders.

I think we should try and bring peace by better education, This is how the Christian  divide in Europe  was settled,

Also children should not be in war zones. It took centuries for Europeans to ban boy soldiers.



#14 mmoghand

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Posted 16 July 2014 - 09:59 PM

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US State dept. is accepting a position from CIA sources that ISIS is the former Al Qaeda of Iraq. AQI to ISIS is nothing more than a name change. Consider this map of Iraqi ethnicity from Columbia:

 

 

Iraq_Ethnic_sm.png

 

 

The map doesn't show it, but what matters to the Iranians today is control of the main roads going west out of Baghdad to Damascus. If it takes flattening Fallujah and Ramadi, that is what you will see. Iran sent 7 SU-25s over with the pilots and we can assume these planes have been working steadily against ISIS mobile units. That commitment could go up to 200 planes in a weekend.

 

"Yellow" Sunni areas extend up into Syria. That Syrian border with Iraq was drawn first-time in 1916 as part of the Sykes-Picot Treaty. Local people don't quite believe in any part of it -- or in "Syria" or "Iraq" for that matter. Here is what ISIS claims to control:

 

Bp2WnwaCYAIX1Ki.jpg

 

 

That's large parts of Syria and Iraq.

 

A bet: Gen. Suleimani gets done with preparations by September. His big problem will be logistics on the way to the Turkish border.

 

ISIS is al Qaeda. A criminal gang, not an army.

 

And while CIA's guy for Syria Oubai Shahbandar is out pimping for arms gifts at $500,000,000 to a non-existent Syrian "Third Way" effort, let us pray for his soul.



#15 aus

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 12:56 AM

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I am not sure that isis is al Qaeda. Their aim as you shown is to redraw the boundaries of Syria and Iraq. The original boundary was drawn up by western powers so it not acceptable to them and many locals. That why it is useless the West trying to save Iraq. Sunnies want to control their own area. They can not in Iraq because they are a minority. But if the boundaries were redrawn they can control their own area.

If that what the locals want we should not interfere.

However it is true that ISIS is a criminal gang but it can count on the support of the local sunnies to form an army. Because of  what the West did in Iraq removing the sunni army and government it  has cause resentment among the sunnies.



#16 mmoghand

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Posted 17 July 2014 - 01:33 PM

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I am not sure that isis is al Qaeda.

al Qaeda in Iraq was the proper title. That matched their own nomenclature in Arabic, plus Pentagon usage. Our General Ordierno went public in 2010 with a big haul of AQI men. He said "we've either picked up or killed 34 out of the top 42 al Qaeda in Iraq leaders," implying that AQI was in deep trouble. But subsequently 8 major prison breaks freed the most of AQI personnel and AQI morphed to ISIS/ISIL with its main operation up in central Syria. Between MENA Sunni contributions, oil money and its extortion/kidnapping operations there's no way ISIS/ISIL was going away.

They are not the only outfit taking sides with Sunnis against the Shi'ia government. Jaysh Rijal al-Tariqa al-Naqshbandia (JRTN) is the Ba'ath Party relabelled. JRTN are Sunni nationalists, formerly loyal to Saddam Hussein. Their public leader is Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri -- together with Sunni tribal leaders. Earlier claims that AQI had taken over Ramadi and Fallujah may have mistaken AQI for JRTN. JRTN still has the bulk of the hundreds of tons weapons they removed from Saddam's armories. That's small arms, mortars, howitzers and the like with plenty of ammunition. JRTN has experienced leadership, going back all the way to the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.

Meanwhile the NeoCons and their employees continue to embarrass themselves: Reihan Salam offers that:

"A military presence [in Iraq] gives the U.S. leverage to shape political outcomes. The fundamental question is whether even a small contingent of U.S. troops might have reassured members of Iraq's minority communities by shielding them from the worst excesses of a Shia-dominated government, thus undermining those calling for its violent overthrow"

 

Also:

 

"This desire to escape subjugation has been the central driver of the various Sunni insurgencies that have rocked Iraq for more than a decade. Some Sunni militants seek not just to avoid oppression and brutality at the hands of Shias but to reassert their dominance, often on the grounds that Shias are deviants or apostates. These are the true bitter-enders, for whom no compromise is possible. Most of Iraq’s Sunnis, however, see themselves as essentially defensive in orientation, and willing to lay down their arms if they are promised the right to live in peace. It is only when U.S. officials came to understand the crisis in Iraq as a communal civil war  that they knew what they had to do to contain it: reassure the Sunnis that the Shias would do them no harm, if only because U.S. forces would keep Shia sectarianism in check."

 

This guy Salam doesn't think we know how to read a map. He wants sell the NeoCon-Likud propaganda bull that President Obama could have defused AQI/ISIS/ISIL by "negotiating" with the Iran-connected al-Maliki government to keep 10,000 American troops in Iraq after 2012. Near Baghdad, at that.

The big red splotch on the second map above speaks for itself: This Salam presentation of the NeoCon-Likud position, as quoted, is fundamentally militarily nuts. al-Maliki works for Iran, not America. nothing involving American troops is going to change that. And not even 1,000,000 American troops in Baghdad would have kept AQI/ISIS/ISIL from taking over central and eastern Syria.

In contrast, it took less than half the 2,000 in-country Iranian troops (with urban warfare training) to ramrod Iraqi army units to retake Tikrit from ISIS. This force moved directly to set up perimeter defense and overwatch positions. They are career professionals like the Americans, but the big difference generally is that they speak Arabic and understand the subtleties of Iraqi dialects for interaction and interrogation. General Suleimani has done one helluva job over the last 25 years.

 

And Tikrit is Sunni.



#17 aus

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 01:24 AM

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While I agree that the Iraq and Syrian wars are civil wars.II am not sure the US government would gain anything by negotiating with one side. We do not know which side will  win. The USA supported Iran for a time in the Iraq=Iran war than change sides. We do not know enough about the Middle East to take sides.

I agree the conservatives are wrong but Obama is better to keep out .



#18 mmoghand

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Posted 18 July 2014 - 04:37 PM

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...The USA supported Iran for a time in the Iraq=Iran war than change sides. We do not know enough about the Middle East to take sides. ....

Iran has all but taken over effective day-to-day command of the Iraqi military. AP has this from Samarra yesterday:

 

-- http://abcnews.go.co...singlePage=true

 

A powerful Iranian general has emerged as the chief tactician in Iraq's fight against Sunni militants, working on the front lines alongside 120 advisers from his country's Revolutionary Guard to direct Shiite militiamen and government forces in the smallest details of battle, militia commanders and government officials say.

 

The startlingly hands-on role of Iranian Gen. Ghasem Soleimani points to the extent of the Shiite-led Iraqi government's reliance on its ally Tehran. It also strikes a strong contrast with the more methodical, cautious approach of the United States, Iran's rival for influence in Iraq. Shiite fighters have come to idolize the Iranians who have moved into the heat of battle alongside them — with two Iranian advisers killed in fighting — while government officials grumble the United States has failed to come to their aid.

 

 

Samarra is 80 miles north from Baghdad. The city has been under attack from ISIS for weeks. What General Suleimani did there parallels work at Tikret. He organized Iraqi army and militia resources, drove off ISIS, then laid out a 10km perimeter with military overwatch strongholds. You have to defend against 120mm mortars before anything else is going to hold together.

 

General Suleimani has been seen at the al-Askari shrine. That includes attending prayers and sleeping in the cellar. He and his QF regulars are making an impression of the Iraqi public through their contacts with the local militiamen. "They are so much braver than Iraqi army commanders," a senior militia commander deployed in Samarra said of the Iranians.

 

The collection for spellings in news reports gets a new example:  "Ghasem Soleimani." This gives us roughly one new version every week. Qassim Abdil-Zahra is one of the AP writers, so I'm surprised that he adopted a variant spelling for what is his own first name.



#19 aus

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Posted 19 July 2014 - 12:43 AM

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As I said elsewhere The USA should not take sides. It is true that Iraq is in control of Shites. The USA help them to power. But it does not know enough about the situation to take sides now.  General  Suleimani is an extremist shities. He will not help solve the religious problem in Iraq. He might be a military leader but  he can not bring peace.



#20 mmoghand

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Posted 20 July 2014 - 01:17 AM

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As I said elsewhere The USA should not take sides. It is true that Iraq is in control of [Shiites.] The USA help them to power. .... General  Suleimani is an extremist [Shiite]. He will not help solve the religious problem in Iraq. He might be a military leader but  he can not bring peace.

 

 

 

America is a paid merc for the Saudis and Gulf State allies. They paid the Bushes hundreds of million of dollars using the Carlyle Group as the mechanism. Also, House of Bush, House of Saud traces $1.4 billion in contracts and investments from the House of Saud to the Bushes and their friends. You can google [ Bandar Bush ] for how deeply this goes.

 

That connection put America firmly on the side of Sunni fundamentalists. The Salafi-dependent "royal family." The approved charities that funnel money to all the worst of the suicide bombing groups and gangsters.

 

In contrast the Sunni faction were first repressed by the CIA-installed Shah of Iran, then slaughtered to the hundreds of thousands in part with weapons that Ronald Reagan and his people sent to Saddam Hussein in the 1980s. That included equipment that produced poison gas. In Lebanon, Reagan had US Navy ships bombard Druze and Shi'ia neighborhoods up hill from Beirut killing 1,500 civilians. His handling of Lebanon from 1982 to 1984 could hardly have been worse.

 

The Sunni fanatics have made this bed for themselves. They have supported gangsters with delusions of religious grandeur. Their Baathists in Iraq ally themselves with ISIS and supply them with military and logistic assistance. So now we have General Suleimani putting together an army as large as what General Eisenhower used to retake Paris in 1944. And far from being fanatics, Iran has not murdered its Sunni populations. Far from it. They appear not to pursue a "Winner Takes All" strategy.

 

They certainly do not use their Major Depression mental patients to carry out suicide bombings against their rivals as do the Sunnis.

 

Give it another 2 months. Time for ISIS to kidnap, extort, steal, murder their way through Sunni Nineveh Province. The Big Red area above. The Iraqi Sunnis in Nineveh will tire of them quickly enough. Then the General's 750,000 man army will have the option of creating a Paradise of battle.

 

  • Seal off the Syrian border. Same for Jordan

  • As ISIS takes no prisoners, take no prisoners

  • If Fallujah and Ramadi support ISIS then flatten them

  • Destroy every private automobile and light truck in al-Anbar and Nineveh

  • Commandeer the heavy trucks and use them to move food and fuel

  • Where local militias choose combat, kill them

 

Nineveh Province is headed to a Dark Ages wasteland. I'm not going to argue much with what General Suleimani has to do in the half-year or so it will take to eradicate ISIS. We can hope he will have momentum to push to the Turkish border. Then wheel west and meet his allies in Damascus.

 

--

 

And we're all of three months from John McCain and Lindsey Graham calling to arm the Syrian rebels. No mention of ISIS. No thought that anything we put into Syria is going straight down the road to ISIS. They're dumber than Reagan. As to Iraq ??? We are not a factor. Iran's man on the scene is al-Maliki, who came in with condition that the Americans leave.



#21 mmoghand

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Posted 20 July 2014 - 02:27 PM

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"Sunni" defines military incompetence. Here's a summation of Bill Clinton's interview about Hamas:

 

 

We can thank former President Bill Clinton for perfect clarity in his comments about the chaos and horror of Gaza. In an interview on Indian television, Clinton—who told us in his memoir that Palestinian self-destructiveness (in the form of Yasir Arafat’s various delusions and prevarications) undid his effort to bring about a two-state solution to the Middle East conflict—blames the Muslim Brotherhood’s Gaza affiliate, Hamas, for adopting a policy of deliberate self-murder in order to present Israel with a set of impossible dilemmas. “Hamas was perfectly well aware of what would happen if they started raining rockets in Israel,” Clinton said. “They fired a thousand of them. And they have a strategy designed to force Israel to kill their own civilians so that the rest of the world will condemn them.”

 

We can thank Hamas for bringing its own form of clarity to this situation. This is the manner in which Hamas works: It builds reinforced bunkers for its leaders (under hospitals and other must-avoid targets) but purposefully neglects to build bomb shelters for the civilians in its putative care. From their bunkers, the leaders order rocket teams to target Israeli civilians. Hamas, which was responsible for the deaths of several hundred Israeli civilians during the second Palestinian uprising alone, has lately been less effective at killing Israelis, but nevertheless, the rockets keep launching. When you repeatedly fire rockets at civilian targets in a neighboring country, that country usually responds militarily. Civilians get killed during the Israeli response in part because Hamas rocket teams operate from sites that are among Gaza's most densely populated, and in part because Hamas stores its weapons in schools and mosques.

 

 

-- http://www.ndtv.com/...anscript-560395 -- reported at Salon by Jeffrey Goldberg

 

Effectively, ISIS and Hamas murder their own civilians. They accomplish nothing militarily. They terrorize and cause slaughter for their own populations. The people who finance Hamas are the same people who bought up American arms companies using the Carlyle Group for legal cover. That's where they bribed used ownership of such as BDM and TRW for the likes of Frank Carlucci, Phillip Odeen, James Baker, Richard Darman; Arthur Levitt, Michael Armacost, et.al.

 

There's a rare American who can't be bribed. Who will not take money through the Military-Industrial Complex. They're the "patriots," don'tcha know. And their politics run 100% to backing Sunni regimes and their projects despite that these projects result in ISIS and Hamas and the former al Qaeda network. The whole web of it is bizarre, black humor.



#22 aus

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Posted 21 July 2014 - 01:10 AM

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Mnoghand, I agree that Hamas has refuse peace offers. The last was its refusal to accept the Israeli cease fire.

But even Hilary Clinton said negotiating in the Middle East  was llke "Walking on a tight rope Even the Jewish leaders were difficult to deal with . (Hilary Clinton "Living History")

 I do not think it is the arms sales but religious lobby groups in the USA that caused American government to support Israel. Besides the Jewist lobby there are born again Christians who support Israel  thinking Christ will return there soon.

 

I think neither side wants to give in for fear that more militant groups will take over.. However Israel has the greatest weapons and it has a duty to end the conflict as well.



#23 mmoghand

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Posted 22 July 2014 - 05:28 PM

Here's an interesting piece from Patrick Cockburn, Alexander and Andrew's brother:
Iraq crisis: How Saudi Arabia helped Isis take over the north of the country

Some time before 9/11, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, once the powerful Saudi ambassador in Washington and head of Saudi intelligence until a few months ago, had a revealing and ominous conversation with the head of the British Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, Sir Richard Dearlove. Prince Bandar told him: "The time is not far off in the Middle East, Richard, when it will be literally 'God help the Shia'. More than a billion Sunnis have simply had enough of them."


That's "Bandar Bush" for American political junkies.

Of course what Bandar plotted has backfired. Despite the impression that ISIS has conquered half of Syria and a third of Iraq, that is a very temporary invasion. Raqqa and Mosul turned out Sunni popular revolts to support ISIS. Sunni hatefulness in Mosul produced this destruction -- al-Qubba mosque:

31shiitemosque-ap.jpg

The Prince Bandar Destroy-the-Shi'ia-Mosque Exposition.

And now ISIS has no need of Saudi or Gulf State support. They have their own little oil wells. And their hatreds for Shi'ia and for "Royal Family" Sunnis exceed their near-rabid hatreds for Jews and Christians.

Wonder if the Cockburns know that "Hajj Qassim" has been sleeping in the cellar at al-Askari ???

#24 aus

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Posted 23 July 2014 - 12:40 AM

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I am a little  puzzle as to what mmoghand is advocating. It is true the Saudi Arabia finance most sunni movements. This included September 11 and Al Quay and ISIS. You are now saying it is losing control. If that is the case Surely it would just stop financing ISIS and that would weaken it. I do not think ISIS could run the oil refineries it has conquer. So Saudi Arabia still has the wealth. I do not see how supporting the shi'as'to keep territory it won with American support would help.

 

The only solution to sectarian division is that of Ireland. Give the majority sunni areas to them, the majority shi'as areas to them and have a joint government of areas which are too divided to split up.



#25 mmoghand

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Posted 24 July 2014 - 05:38 PM

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I am a little  puzzle as to what mmoghand is advocating. It is true the Saudi Arabia finance most sunni movements. This included September 11 and Al Quay and ISIS. You are now saying it is losing control. If that is the case Surely it would just stop financing ISIS and that would weaken it. I do not think ISIS could run the oil refineries it has conquer. So Saudi Arabia still has the wealth. .....

 

What I am advocated is realism. There is nothing that America can or should do in Iraq. Our choices ended when Bush invaded Iraq and then put Bremer in charge, aiming to destroy what had been a clear danger to Saudi hegemony. The Saudis wanted Saddam gone -- they got what they wanted.

 

Now al-Qaeda in Iraq is renamed ISIS or ISIL or simply IS for Islamic State. And militarily this group is a not much more than a sham. Up against a professional military, their field experience will not make up for what are amateurish approaches to military problems.

 

One more detail: ISIS came out with yet another demand on Syrians and Iraqis under its control. They want all the women in their areas to undergo female genital mutilation.

 

We knew they were unhinged when they destroyed the al-Qubba mosque. Now they aim to sever 10,000,000 clitorises.

 

What ??? ISIS is going "Hannibal" on us? An unusual source of protein? Fried up, with basmati and tamarind sauce ?????

 

And if you want a belly laugh there's this piece comparing General Suleimani to a Hollywood villain who happens to be an ape:

 

-- http://www.tabletmag.../planet-of-apes





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