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#279016 - 08/20/08 08:39 AM
Re: Musharaff Resigns!
[Re: Sleek Phantom Mystic]
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member
Registered: 07/03/03
Loc: varies from day to day
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I said this in some other threads about Pakistan but will repeat it here. When Mushareff leaves Pakistan, Pakistan will start its total collapse. I will be surprised if Pakistan still has a functional central government two years from the day Mushareff relinquishes all power. If he sticks around and pulls strings from behind the curtain, he might buy Pakistan another year. If he is forced to leave Pakistan, either as an explicit exile or to avoid arrest, I suspect the breakdown will come even faster. The only thing likely to prevent that breakdown is yet another military coup in Pakistan. However, the Army is increasingly subject to ISI control and the ISI is increasingly riddled with Islamic extremists and those sympathetic to the viewpoint of those extremists. Such a coup, with the increased influence of the ISI, is rather likely to result in sharply increased Pakistani conflict with India over the Kashmir region and even greater resurgence of the Taliban-Al Qaeda in Afghanistan as old ties with the ISI come into the open again. The US is likely to need significant build ups in Afghanistan to retain its position, the Pakistanis are likely to cut cooperation with the US (even more blatantly than they have already done), India and Pakistan are liekly to move into open warfare. In such a conflict, the US is almost certain to side with the Indians.
Mushareff's departure is not a good thing for Pakistan, the region, or the United States.
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"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." ~ Claire Wolfe
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#279110 - 08/21/08 08:41 AM
Re: Musharaff Resigns!
[Re: Anonymous]
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member
Registered: 07/03/03
Loc: varies from day to day
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Aus, of course I think dictators who support the US are better than democratically elected governments who oppose it. I am an American and I have America's interests in mind. I know, I know, it is currently fashionable, at least among the American left and among all non-Americans, to oppose American interests everywhere in the world no matter how slight they might be. You are merely a victim of fashion, Aus.
Here is the thing, Aus. I do not think America has much strategic interest in Pakistan (beyond its status as a hotbed of terrorist recruiting and training) and consequently I do not care all that much Pakistan. I was simply offering observations as to the probably future of Pakistan absent Mushareff. Honestly, Aus, I see nothing inherently sacred in democracy. It is merely one among many systems of governmental organization that works reasonably well most of the time. Democracy is, as has been said before, not a suicide pact. If the democratic process results in a government unwilling or unable to preserve the unity and stability of the nation then it is foolishness to allow the results of the process to stand. Do you mean to suggest democracy means all should follow like lemmings in a suicidal dash from some high cliff? I personally think the democratic process in Pakistan has been subverted and is not working in the county's long term interests. As a result, the democraticly elected government of Pakistan is likely going to preside over the collapse of the country.
SPM, Pakistan is rather unlikely to follow the Turkish model. It is however rather interesting that you think so. It exposes your continued historical and political ignorance. Were you aware that Turkey is subject to repeated military coups designed to remove democraticly elected governments when they veer too far into radical religiosity? Were you aware the Turkish military views itself as the protector of Turkish secularism and rather clearly indicates it believes it has not only the right but the duty to remove those governments and "reset" as it were the democratic process? Were you aware Turkey has a rather extreme policy of quashing ethnic dissent and imposing "Tuskishness" on all citizens? If Pakistan actually followed the Turkish model, as you seem to think it will, Mushareff would still be in power, still be Chief of Staff of the Army, and the democraticly elected government would be in jail or exile.
_________________________
"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." ~ Claire Wolfe
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#279130 - 08/21/08 01:40 PM
Re: Musharaff Resigns!
[Re: Lawmage]
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TM Chairman of the Board
Registered: 09/22/00
Loc: Arkansas, USA
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I personally think the democratic process in Pakistan has been subverted and is not working in the county's long term interests. As a result, the democraticly elected government of Pakistan is likely going to preside over the collapse of the country. Meanwhile, back at the front in the War on Terror: By MUNIR AHMAD, Associated Press Writer ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - Twin suicide bombings at a massive weapons factory near Pakistan’s capital killed at least 50 people Thursday, dashing hopes for an end to turmoil following Pervez Musharraf’s ouster as president.
The ruling coalition government, made up of traditional rivals who were united primarily in their determination to force Musharraf from office, meanwhile appeared veering toward collapse.
The two main parties have been unable to bridge key differences, like whether judges fired by the one-time military ruler should be quickly reinstated and who should succeed him as president.
The Taliban claimed responsibility for Thursday’s blasts at the government arms factory 20 miles west of Islamabad, which occurred as workers were heading home. So the Taliban now have an open door to replace Afghanistan with Pakistan as their state sponsor. Won't that be peachy. But at least that should please all those who have been so upset that the U.S. might be friendly toward a "strong man."
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Debating the Political Left or Speaking Truth to Kooks!
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#279133 - 08/21/08 03:51 PM
Re: Musharaff Resigns!
[Re: Ray]
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Administrator
Registered: 08/01/99
Loc: New York, NY (New York)
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The India-Pakistan hostility bears watching. I think it was said in a message here that if Pakistan gets belligerent with India, and India responds, a conflict is in the offing.
Since both of these countries have nukes, the outcome of such a conflict will be interesting, to say the least.
Pakistan, our former apparent ally, may become our enemy. I'm not familiar enough with the current Pakistan-India situation to discuss it further, but perhaps Lawmage, or someone else who knows, will.
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