War threatens in Europe.

Today, Georgian troops launched a major attack on the rebellious province of South Ossetia. The attack was intended to bring the rebellious province back under the control of the central government. Russia has intervened in the conflict, launching major air attacks on at least two Georgian military bases and a port facilitating. Even more ominously, they have sent a large ground force of tanks and infantry into Georgian territory.

The Georgian government in expected to declare martial law at any moment and perhaps even acknowledge a formal state of war between Georgia and Russia.

All this might be little more than a side show but for several key things. One, Georgia is a key US ally in Eastern Europe. Two, NATO recently voted to offer Georgia full membership in the alliance. While Georgia may not have a right under Article 5 of the NATO charter to NATO military support in its defense any failure by NATO and the United States to aid Georgia is certain to severely undermine NATO's credibility and all but eliminate its ability to influence the former Soviet regions of Eastern Europe. Similarly, if the United States fails to come to Georgia's aid the US position in the region is devestated. This is especially true in light of Georgia's response to the American request for assistance in Iraq. For those who do not know, Georgia is the third largest contributor of troops in Iraq. Incidently, the Georgian government has indicated it will urgently recall those troops to help defend Georgia from the Russians.

At the moment, the Western response to the outbreak of violence has been calls for an immediate cease fire and mediation. However, that seems rather unlikely to be successful. The Russians are sincerely concerned about Western encroachment into its former sphere of influence and backing down now would seem to be an acknowledgement of that encroachment. It would undermine Russian influence even further. At the same time, if the US and NATO allow the Russian attack on Georgia to go unanswered it will completely discredit them. The nations formerly under the Soviet sphere of influence will be forced to accept that they are STILL subject to Russian control and cannot expect anything more than words from the West. I would hope we in the West are not going to leave them with that hanging over them.

At the moment, all we can do is wait and see how thing splay out.

I think it's unlikely that the US will intervene.

I think the US will not intervene militarily at this point. I am not sure protection can be extended to the provoker. I guess it all depends on how this situation is viewed in the next few days. Bush and Putin have discussed the situation while in China, just before the Olympic opening ceremonies. The US would be hardpressed to intervene in what may be seen as a police action.

Georgia and Osetia joined Russian Empire separately. After the Great October Revolution Russian were divided in many parts. By 1922 Caucasian republics joined to Russia again (separately). Later Stalin created new borders inside the Soviet Union. That is why Osetia is divided. North Osetia is part of Russia and South Osetia was joined to Georgia. In 1991 USSR collapsed. Osetia wanted to become free, as well as Georgia. Not only South Osetia, but Ajaria and Abkhazia. Georgia decided to join them again, but only Ajaria was rejoined. Western countries recognized South Osetia and Abkhazia as parts of Georgia. Why?
Russia has no benefits of South Osetia. Osetinians need protection of Russia. More than 70% of South Osetia population became Russian citizens.
I can’t understand – Georgians eliminated the entire city (Tskhinvali), about 1400 of civilians were killed. …. And somehow Russia is guilty.

It's a bit of a stretch to call Georgia part of Europe!

Sure it has recently begun to compete in the Eurovision song contest and it's football team plays in the European zone, but then, do does Israel and Turkey.

I don't think Georgia has played it's hand very well and it's not as democratic as it makes out, cracking down on opposition last autumn for instance.

It is important it moves in the right/thinking direction and is fairly important as an energy supply transit point...however EU is split and playing into Russia's petro/gas-diplomacy, yawn.

Mind you, South Ossetia is a tiny place run by corrupt smuggler Russian aid guzzling thugs.

There is a real risk

The boarder between Europe and Asia goes through Georgia (according to Russian scientists). As for Western geographers, many of them think that even Russia is completely situated in Asia.

What is interesting to me is seeing how this attempt by Russia to reassert its dominance in the region will be met. Certainly the US and the Europe Union have reason to be concerned and have interests they will wish to protect, however, they are not the primary focus. What will be of special interest to me at least is the reaction of the other former Soviet client states. Places like the Ukraine and the Baltic Republics and Poland. They face considerable risk at the hands of a resurgent Russia. The question then becomes...What will they do? WIll they leave Georgia to confront Russia alone or with whatever Western help is in the offing? Will they recognize that a resurgent Russia threatens their own freedom of movement? Will they be willing to come to Georgia's aid in an effort to stem that Russian resurgence? Will the move even more markedly toward the West? If the West fails to aid Georgia how will that impact the other former Soviet client states?

THis move by the Russians is one that ought to have been anticipated but for the focus on Iraq. It is an almost inevitable result of the Western coup that garnered independence for Kosovo. Russia was almost forced to act to stem the erosion of its interests. Indeed, there is developing evidence to suggest the current conflict was engineered at least in part by the Russians for the very purpose of giving them a pretext with which to invade Georgia and begin to reassert themselves. Much remains yet to be seen.

The U.S. Intervene? I highly doubt that, especially since most of our troops are in Afghanistan, and also in a pointless war in Iraq. Who would we send in there? The Boy Scouts? lol.

This is what happens when you put all of your troops in minor conflicts, you're unable to stop anything if something major happens.

Russia is out to reclaim it's glory, and it's about to start now. Europe seeing this will have to build up it's own military force seeing how the U.S. is tied up in two conflicts already.

I hate to say I told you so, but it's the truth. The U.S. will not be the only Super Power any more, that time is over and we failed to capitalize on it.

There will be three powers in this World ( and not in this exact order ) The U.S., the E.U., and the coming Russia-China Alliance.

Although I am not aware of all thew local issues involve I think this conflict is an attempt to revive the Cold War. Offering membership for Georgia to join Nato even the EU, and using Georgian troops in Iraq makes it clearly on th Western Side

The reaction of Russia in underdstanable. It does not want an increase in power of its traditional enemies. However there is also a nostalgia wish by many Russian and Eastern Europeans to return to the simple and more prosperous times of the past.

Lawmage ask

Well the reaction may not be what you think. It may not be so much but a desire to return to the past when Eastern Europe was strong even under the leadership of Russia. To start with there are many Russians in these countries and pro Russian parties have done well in recent elections. Where is solidarity today in Poland?

Instead of asking for Western help they may seek support for moderate Communist powers like China. After all this is a future Super Power, American influence in Europe and Asia is fading. one only has to see the Chinese reaction to the teams at the Olmpic Games to see that there is frienship for fellow Socialists. The biggest cheers were besides for China for Russia, Cuba and North Korea. Bush and the USA had a luke warm reception with some booing Bush.

1. Poland and Ukraine have already started to help Georgia.
2. Ukraine is unstable state. That is why She seeks USA protection.
3. You don’t know the situation, so you don’t know what will happen. Look at the Caucasus, not at Europe. Abkhazia attacks Georgia. Rebellion in Ajaria. Many Caucasian nations have sent volunteers to battle Georgian army. Osetinians will not forgive the death of their children.
Btw, what is Russia’s guilt? They were Western countries, not Russia, who recognized Abkhazia, Ajaria and South Ossetia as parts of Georgia. 15 years ago Russia stopped the violence. Georgia decided that NATO would help Her to join those republics again and started new acts of violence. Georgian army put in fire the capital of South Ossetia. There are at least 2000 of killed by now. Georgia doesn’t allow wounded and civilians leave the country. The aim of Georgia is to eliminate the entire population of South Ossetia. During 14 hours Russia tried to attract attention of the World. All were in vain. Btw, Russia doesn’t fire the highland from where Georgians attack Tskhinval, because it is Georgian territory.



Yes. Caucasian nations will revenge Georgia, but Russia will be guilty as ever.

I'll try to answer, Law. The Ukraine and the Baltic States were never really a part of Russia in terms of language or ethnicity. Poland became a part of the USSR as the result of WWII. Before then, it was Prussia/Germany. What will they do? I suspect they'll do whatever they believe is in their best interests. The Ukraine wants to be a part of the EU and NATO.

Your next question is unclear since neither the Ukraine nor the Baltic nations seem to have any national ties to Georgia other than geographical.

I don't think other 'client' states will do a thing--no more so than will the US or the EU. Will this be a 'missed opportunity' by those states who want to stem the tide of the growing resurgence of Russia? I honestly don't know.

Northern Osetia apparently considers itself a part of Russia and, if you look at the boundaries, geographically, ethnically and linguistally, it is.

So, should Georgia give it up to Russia?

Isn't that like saying southern New Mexico and southern California should go back to Mexico?

Eastern part of Ukraine is a Russian territory. Stalin created new boarders in USSR and actual events are rooted out of it. Crimea was given to Ukraine in 1956 by Khrushchev (ethnic Ukrainian). Estonia and Latvia have never been independent until the great October Revolution. Once upon a time they belonged to Sweden. Peter the Great defeated Sweden in 1721 and got this land. As for language, there are a lot of nations with their own languages in Russia (249 or somewhat).



Poland has never been a part of USSR. After WWII spheres of influence were devided between USA and USSR. USA gave money to Western Europe, but USSR gave money and resources to Eastern.
But Poland was a part of Russian Empire and they got independence after the Great October Revolution. They used their independence to occupy Western Ukraine, which became a part of USSR in 1939.

And we need your Russian history, Elena, in order to try to sort out what's happening now.

Not so sure...Elena's version does not exactly comport with the versions I learned. Its an interesting tangent but not one directly related to the thread here. Personally, I think the former clinet states are in a position where they must either act to assert their independence or else accept falling back into the Russian sphere. Despite Elena's belief in pro-Russian solidarity there, those nations DO NOT want to fall under Russia's thumb yet again. It will be interesting to see how they react.

If they don't want to fall, again, under Russia's 'thunb,' then they shouldn't. They have a taste of what it's like to not be. Everything seems to indicate that, except for the Northerm Ostesia, people would rather not be a part of Russia.

Put it in detail, please. I don't understand what you are talking about.
Historical background or contemporary events?
Pro-Russian solidarity? I haven't said it. Anti-Georgian solidarity. It also took place while Abkhazians were throwing away Georgians from their territory. Don’t you know that vendetta is a common thing in Caucasus?
People who have relatives in Georgia say that Georgians are very angry at Saakashvily. His awful and stupid action will turn into great troubles to the Georgian population.

Yes, they want to be independent, but they need cooperation with Russia. For example, if Rusia would not buy Abkhazian tangerines and visit their resorts, they would be very poor.

Interesting that Russia is sending troops into Georgia proper. It is launching air strikes on Georgia proper. It is massing troops in Abkhazia. It has blockaded the Georgian Black Sea coast. It has attacked the capital city's airport. It has attacked port facilities in Georgia. It has attack the Georgian oil terminal.

It seems pretty clear to me that Russia is making a blatant territorial grab at Georgian expense...something it has been doing for quite some time with its involvement in South Ossetia and in Abkhazia. I wonder how long before Russia decides to reassert its claims to the territory of other former client states...

Law, if one can believe the newspaper reports, Georgia started it. Be that as it may, Russia has lost no time in jumping into Georgian affairs.


But, let's face it, isn't it really all about the oil pipeline?

West recognized South Ossetia as part of Georgia, though it has never been a part of it, without referendum, in spite of genocide of Ossetinians during centuries. Russian peacekeepers are at the territory of South Ossetia absolutely legally. Georgian army attacked them and killed 15 of peacekeepers. Thus Russia has right to send troop there.
The worse thing is that Georgian army killed civilians, using anti-aircraft gun. They attacked civilians while they were sleeping in their houses. Russia couldn’t defend them immediately, because of international law. What was the reaction of the West? It seems that they desired the entire elimination of Ossetinian population of South Ossetia. No Ossetinians – no problems.



Should Russia allow Georgia to get new weapon and troops? Russia doesn’t kill civilians. I know that 7 people were killed in Poti sea-port, but it was accidentally.



I wonder what NATO military advisers do in Georgia and why bodies of Black soldiers are found.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia will never be a part of Georgia, they will be independent.

Exactly so.

I rather seriously doubt that, Elena. They will NOT be independent. They will be absorbed into Russia and become Russians. Talk of preserving their independence is so much nonsense. Russia fully intended to incorporate South Ossetia and Abkhazia into Russia and this invasion of Georgia is the pretext they are suing for that rather blatant land grab.

Well, Russia is broadening the conflict. Russia sent several thousand troops into Abkhazia on Saturday. Those troops have invaded Georgia, attacking the town of Senaki and occupying a Georgian military base in the town. Meanwhile, Russian fighter bombers continue to roam over Georgia proper attacking both military and civilian targets. Russia steadfastly refuses to return to the status quo ante or to accept a cease fire. This refusal rather clearly gives the lie to Russian claims it is merely seeking to "protect the people of South Ossetia." Clearly Russia fully intends to seize South Ossetia and Abkhazia and incorporate them into Russia itself.

1. They were being parts of Russia for about 200 years and haven't turned into Russians.
2. If they would absorbed by Russia, they'll hate Her, but if they would be independed, but protected by Russia and if it would be an enemy nearby, they'll love Russia with all their hearts.

Btw, why did Georgians kill all those civilians? Why did they attack peacekeepers? They could just occupy the land.

Yes. Russia didn't guard Ossetinians, so She tries to protect Abkhazians. Btw, a part of Abkhazia is still occupied by Georgia.



Meanwhile, Russian forces shot down Су-25, which was bombing Tskhinval again not long ago.
What civilian targets?

War between Russia and Georgia orchestrated from USA

By Pravda

Russian officials believe that it was the USA that orchestrated the current conflict. The chairman of the State Duma Committee for Security, Vladimir Vasilyev, believes that the current conflict is South Ossetia is very reminiscent to the wars in Iraq and Kosovo.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20469.htm



It isn't accurate to say that the USA "orchestrated" the current conflict, but certainly actions of the Bush administration contributed to it. Of course, the conflict between Russia and Georgia over territory and autonomy goes back to the 18th century, but more recently, the Bush administration knew well that if it encouraged Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia, Russia would do the same with respect to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. ...And flirting with Georgia about admission to NATO emboldened Georgia to take actions in those provinces that it knew would antagonize Russia, like sending Georgian troops into South Ossetia and killing Russian civilians there. A defter foreign policy would not have taken any position on Kosovo and would not have been trying to woo Georgia. After all, the U.S. should try to avoid any major conflicts with Russia, which is still a nuclear superpower, while it does not really need fealty from either Georgia or Kosovo.

Like Turkey Russia straddles Europe and Asia, I think it's broadly accepted that the Urals marks the geographic boundary in Russia, for Turkey it's a watery boundary...which leaves the Caucasus as at best on the corner of Europe, rather than 'In' Europe.

It suits the siloviki run Russian state perfectly to have Georgia de-stabilised by the S. Ossetia/Abkahzia slivers, much as Transdniestra is a festering sore of kleptocracy.

There is no advantage having them as part of Russia.

I will leave it to Elena to get the local aspects of the war. However there are wider issues. The USA has been acting recently that they can do what they like in Central Europe. Building pipelines and missles bases was sure to antaganise the Russians.

The attacks on South Ossetia and Ablahzia are part of Russia drawing a line in the sand and telling USA to back off. Whether these territories will be of any use to Russia, taking them back into the Russia fold is a sign that Russia has stop allowing its borders to be absorbed into the American sphere of influence.The reluntance of any Western nation to give military support to Geogia does show at least in this part of the world Russia is supreme.