War threatens in Europe.

Today, Georgian troops launched a major attack on the rebellious province of South Ossetia. The attack was intended to bring the rebellious province back under the control of the central government. Russia has intervened in the conflict, launching major air attacks on at least two Georgian military bases and a port facilitating. Even more ominously, they have sent a large ground force of tanks and infantry into Georgian territory.

The Georgian government in expected to declare martial law at any moment and perhaps even acknowledge a formal state of war between Georgia and Russia.

All this might be little more than a side show but for several key things. One, Georgia is a key US ally in Eastern Europe. Two, NATO recently voted to offer Georgia full membership in the alliance. While Georgia may not have a right under Article 5 of the NATO charter to NATO military support in its defense any failure by NATO and the United States to aid Georgia is certain to severely undermine NATO's credibility and all but eliminate its ability to influence the former Soviet regions of Eastern Europe. Similarly, if the United States fails to come to Georgia's aid the US position in the region is devestated. This is especially true in light of Georgia's response to the American request for assistance in Iraq. For those who do not know, Georgia is the third largest contributor of troops in Iraq. Incidently, the Georgian government has indicated it will urgently recall those troops to help defend Georgia from the Russians.

At the moment, the Western response to the outbreak of violence has been calls for an immediate cease fire and mediation. However, that seems rather unlikely to be successful. The Russians are sincerely concerned about Western encroachment into its former sphere of influence and backing down now would seem to be an acknowledgement of that encroachment. It would undermine Russian influence even further. At the same time, if the US and NATO allow the Russian attack on Georgia to go unanswered it will completely discredit them. The nations formerly under the Soviet sphere of influence will be forced to accept that they are STILL subject to Russian control and cannot expect anything more than words from the West. I would hope we in the West are not going to leave them with that hanging over them.

At the moment, all we can do is wait and see how thing splay out.

I think it's unlikely that the US will intervene.

I think the US will not intervene militarily at this point. I am not sure protection can be extended to the provoker. I guess it all depends on how this situation is viewed in the next few days. Bush and Putin have discussed the situation while in China, just before the Olympic opening ceremonies. The US would be hardpressed to intervene in what may be seen as a police action.

Georgia and Osetia joined Russian Empire separately. After the Great October Revolution Russian were divided in many parts. By 1922 Caucasian republics joined to Russia again (separately). Later Stalin created new borders inside the Soviet Union. That is why Osetia is divided. North Osetia is part of Russia and South Osetia was joined to Georgia. In 1991 USSR collapsed. Osetia wanted to become free, as well as Georgia. Not only South Osetia, but Ajaria and Abkhazia. Georgia decided to join them again, but only Ajaria was rejoined. Western countries recognized South Osetia and Abkhazia as parts of Georgia. Why?
Russia has no benefits of South Osetia. Osetinians need protection of Russia. More than 70% of South Osetia population became Russian citizens.
I can’t understand – Georgians eliminated the entire city (Tskhinvali), about 1400 of civilians were killed. …. And somehow Russia is guilty.

It's a bit of a stretch to call Georgia part of Europe!

Sure it has recently begun to compete in the Eurovision song contest and it's football team plays in the European zone, but then, do does Israel and Turkey.

I don't think Georgia has played it's hand very well and it's not as democratic as it makes out, cracking down on opposition last autumn for instance.

It is important it moves in the right/thinking direction and is fairly important as an energy supply transit point...however EU is split and playing into Russia's petro/gas-diplomacy, yawn.

Mind you, South Ossetia is a tiny place run by corrupt smuggler Russian aid guzzling thugs.

There is a real risk

The boarder between Europe and Asia goes through Georgia (according to Russian scientists). As for Western geographers, many of them think that even Russia is completely situated in Asia.

What is interesting to me is seeing how this attempt by Russia to reassert its dominance in the region will be met. Certainly the US and the Europe Union have reason to be concerned and have interests they will wish to protect, however, they are not the primary focus. What will be of special interest to me at least is the reaction of the other former Soviet client states. Places like the Ukraine and the Baltic Republics and Poland. They face considerable risk at the hands of a resurgent Russia. The question then becomes...What will they do? WIll they leave Georgia to confront Russia alone or with whatever Western help is in the offing? Will they recognize that a resurgent Russia threatens their own freedom of movement? Will they be willing to come to Georgia's aid in an effort to stem that Russian resurgence? Will the move even more markedly toward the West? If the West fails to aid Georgia how will that impact the other former Soviet client states?

THis move by the Russians is one that ought to have been anticipated but for the focus on Iraq. It is an almost inevitable result of the Western coup that garnered independence for Kosovo. Russia was almost forced to act to stem the erosion of its interests. Indeed, there is developing evidence to suggest the current conflict was engineered at least in part by the Russians for the very purpose of giving them a pretext with which to invade Georgia and begin to reassert themselves. Much remains yet to be seen.

The U.S. Intervene? I highly doubt that, especially since most of our troops are in Afghanistan, and also in a pointless war in Iraq. Who would we send in there? The Boy Scouts? lol.

This is what happens when you put all of your troops in minor conflicts, you're unable to stop anything if something major happens.

Russia is out to reclaim it's glory, and it's about to start now. Europe seeing this will have to build up it's own military force seeing how the U.S. is tied up in two conflicts already.

I hate to say I told you so, but it's the truth. The U.S. will not be the only Super Power any more, that time is over and we failed to capitalize on it.

There will be three powers in this World ( and not in this exact order ) The U.S., the E.U., and the coming Russia-China Alliance.

Although I am not aware of all thew local issues involve I think this conflict is an attempt to revive the Cold War. Offering membership for Georgia to join Nato even the EU, and using Georgian troops in Iraq makes it clearly on th Western Side

The reaction of Russia in underdstanable. It does not want an increase in power of its traditional enemies. However there is also a nostalgia wish by many Russian and Eastern Europeans to return to the simple and more prosperous times of the past.

Lawmage ask

Well the reaction may not be what you think. It may not be so much but a desire to return to the past when Eastern Europe was strong even under the leadership of Russia. To start with there are many Russians in these countries and pro Russian parties have done well in recent elections. Where is solidarity today in Poland?

Instead of asking for Western help they may seek support for moderate Communist powers like China. After all this is a future Super Power, American influence in Europe and Asia is fading. one only has to see the Chinese reaction to the teams at the Olmpic Games to see that there is frienship for fellow Socialists. The biggest cheers were besides for China for Russia, Cuba and North Korea. Bush and the USA had a luke warm reception with some booing Bush.

1. Poland and Ukraine have already started to help Georgia.
2. Ukraine is unstable state. That is why She seeks USA protection.
3. You don’t know the situation, so you don’t know what will happen. Look at the Caucasus, not at Europe. Abkhazia attacks Georgia. Rebellion in Ajaria. Many Caucasian nations have sent volunteers to battle Georgian army. Osetinians will not forgive the death of their children.
Btw, what is Russia’s guilt? They were Western countries, not Russia, who recognized Abkhazia, Ajaria and South Ossetia as parts of Georgia. 15 years ago Russia stopped the violence. Georgia decided that NATO would help Her to join those republics again and started new acts of violence. Georgian army put in fire the capital of South Ossetia. There are at least 2000 of killed by now. Georgia doesn’t allow wounded and civilians leave the country. The aim of Georgia is to eliminate the entire population of South Ossetia. During 14 hours Russia tried to attract attention of the World. All were in vain. Btw, Russia doesn’t fire the highland from where Georgians attack Tskhinval, because it is Georgian territory.



Yes. Caucasian nations will revenge Georgia, but Russia will be guilty as ever.