Iran is shooting off missiles; Israel is showing off its latest 'state of the art' spy planes; the US has signed the agreement with the Czech Repubic to build a radar tracking system outside of Prague; Russia has warned that it will react with uspecified


Iran says 'We're only doing this in case Israel attacks us first.' Israel is saying, 'We're only doing this if Iran attacks us first."

In the meantime, Iran is shooting its rockets over the Strait of Hormuz, the major water 'pipeline' for the exportation of ME crude, the price of which has gone up again, as a result.

What's going on? Is it all rhetorical posturing and bully-boy bluff?

Personally, Liz...I think the Iranian leadership believes the US and the West in general are so adverse to any further armed conflict that now is the perfect time to push ahead with its weapons programs and to posture so as to enhance its influence in the region. By essentially thumbing its nose at the West, Iran demonstrates to the rest of the region that it possesses the military and political might to do so with impunity. This translates to greater influence for Iran because it suggests to regional nations that if Iran turned its attention to them the West will be powerless to do anything to help.

So, no, I do not think its all just rhetorical posturing and bully boy bluff. Its a very real and deliberate attempt by Iran to seize an opportunity to obtain nuclear weapons and to enhance its regional position in the process.

Gosh, it's awfully hard for me to believe that Americans are adverse to any further armed conflict. That is like saying that Americans are tired of war.

Well sir, if George Bush isn't tired of war, and Dick Cheney isn't tired of war, and Condoleezza Rice isn't tired of war, and Robert Gates isn't tired of war, and Ray isn't tired of war, then the rest of American people apparently have their heads up their asses.

Bush started this war, and even HE isn't tired of it, so the very least we patriotic Americans can do is not be tired of war. Come on people! Stand with me! Chant along...

WHAT TO WE WANT?
WAR!
HOW DO WE WANT IT?
MORE!

Yeah, yeah, yeah Dax...I know. You hate Bush. You think the war is unjustified. Yada, yada, yada. Blah, blah, blah.

Maybe I should have been more clear...I should have said the Iranian leadership thinks the Iranian leadership believes the US and the West in general are so adverse to any further armed conflict that they will allow the Iranians to do whatever they like...even kill a some innocent service members...and so now is the perfect time to push ahead with its weapons programs and to posture so as to enhance its influence in the region.

You know, Dax, just once it would be nice if you had something substanative to add other than just throwing shit like that zoo monkey we talked about earlier...

At least a zoo monkey knows it's in a cage. They throw shit to protest being kept there.

You think you're not in that cage.

Yeah, yeah, yeah Lawmage...I know. You love Bush. You think the war is justified. Yada, yada, yada. Blah, blah, blah.

LOL...thats just it, Dax. No matter how many times you and others here say it, I do not especially like Bush. I rather disliked Rumsfeld and continue to dislike Cheney. You confuse my agreement with specific aspects of Bush policy with affection for Bush. Rather than respond to the topic, you launch an attack on me and continue to engage in your OCBBD. All this in a thread about Iran and its behaviors...a thread in which I have offered a substantive comment and you have simply treated us all to yet more of your Bush obsession.

I'm well aware of that. How do YOU like having what you say twisted and misquoted?


Yes, as I've said before, I will continue to criticize this nitwit until he's out of office. His policies have done so much to tear this country apart and wreck the economy and wreck so many lives, it's beyond sanity for you to suggest that I not continually point out his faults.

What should I do? I can't shoot him. Do you want to me just lay back and let him do me? Think again.

Are you saying then, Law, that Iran is flexing its muscle because it feels the West won't--or can't--retaliate should actual shots be fired? Are they naive enough to believe campaign promises and are hoping that Obama, if elected, will pull our troops out of Iraq?

The Ayatollah is the real leader of Iran, so it would seem that the leader of a supposedly peaceful religion is willing to commit chaos to eliminate Israel, gain control of the oil fields in Kuwait, Iraq and (possibly) Saudi Arabia and call himself King of the Mountain.

What would be the reaction of the MidEast if Iran were to make a pre-emptive strike against Israel? Probably not much, right? But what if it went on to try for the oil fields in Kuwait and Iraq? Other than hating Israel (for being the strongest state in the ME?,) what reason do they have and how would Iran justify such steps to the world?

I don't know if Iran has nuclear weapons or not. Do you think Russia would supply them if Iran became the aggressor?

I honestly don't see how any of the abovr would enhance Iran's position in the ME.

Liz, I suspect Iran would say pretty much what Iraq said...the Kuwaitis are lap dogs for the infidel crusaders of the West. The Saudis have betrayed islam and sold themselves like whores to the west. The iranians are stepping in to preserve the patrimony of the Islamic people from the gluttony of the West. All those would sell fairly well on the Islamic street.

Are you asking if the Russians would give the Iranians nuclear weapons? That would be vanishingly unlikely. I suppose some criminal elements might have one or two to sell them but as a matter of policy Russia no more wants a nuclear capable Iran than does the US.

As I recall, Law, Iraq invaded Kuwait because it maintained that Kuwait had originally been a part of Iraq and Iraq wanted it back. I believe we've been over this before.

The ME could give a s**t about the UN or its Security Council. I think we all know that. But does Iran not care about how it's viewed by the world?

I'm simply conjecturing now, but it seems to me that Iran is still working under antiquated tribal rules. Animals show their fangs, growl, beat their chests and butt their heads against each other in a show of force. Is that what the Iranis are doing?

Is it bully boy bluff?

Liz, were you asking me or someone else...? I already answered though I suppose I should not be suprised if you keep asking until you get the answer you want.


You make the mistake that people throughout the world make...they often assume others are as they are. That is seldom the case. The Iranian leadership truly DOES NOT care what the rest of the world thinks, Liz. They think the rest of the world is filled with vile infidels sure to suffer the righteous fury of Allah. Public opinion is not only irrelevant but ascribing any relevance to it is blasphemy because the only thing of relevance is the will of Allah as expressed to his Prophet and recorded in the Koran.

As I said earlier...I do not believe the Iranians are engaged in a simple show of force. They are engaged in a deadly serious effort to obtain weapons they think will render them immune to Western attack and at the same time move them into a primary position fo influence in the region. Success in that effort would increase their influence as a nation and as the representatives of their sect of islam.

No, I was asking you, since you had said,

in one sentence and then,


The NY Times said that the war games were 'bluff and deception' and not really as menacing as they appeared--but they did 'rattle' the oil market which resulted in raising the price of crude from $136/barrel to $147/barrel. If that price is sustained, it would bring millions into the Iranian coffers.

While I don't believe Iran made its show of force in order to raise the price of crude, I found it interesting that a leading newspaper would drop such a pebble into the stream of conjecture and misinformation.

Well...I am not normally suprised by what the NYT does...nor am I suprised that you took two quotes out of context when if you read the entire post things are rather clear. The discussion is about what the Iranians likely think, liz, not about how things necessarily are in reality.

Ha! the pot calling the kettle black.



The Iranians don't care what other Arab nations think, Iran doesn't care what the West thinks. Where is Iran's recognition of reality?

Where is Iran's recognition of reality?

Where is Pat Robertson's? Delusional thinking isn't exclusive to Iran, although it is probably more institutionalized in Muslim countries than in western ones.